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On the Differences in the Ambient Solar Wind Speed Forecasting Caused by Using Synoptic Maps from Different Observatories

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Abstract

We consider the problem of forecasting the solar wind speed using not only well-known magnetic field data sets, such as the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) and the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) but others, such as the Infrared Magnetograph (IRmag) at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Solar Telescope for Operative Prediction (STOP) in Russia. We use these observations to study Carrington rotation (CR) 2164 (21 May – 17 June 2015). Our initial calculations are based on the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model and include determining the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface (PFSS) approximation. The speed of the ambient solar wind near the Sun is calculated using an empirical equation that considers the flux tube expansion factor (FTEF) and the distance of the flux tube footpoint from the coronal hole boundary (DCHB) at the photospheric level. The solar wind bulk speed at the Earth’s orbit is calculated using the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. It is shown that the discrepancies in the speed values from four different data sets could reach ≈ 200 km s−1, which is significant. We compare our predictions with in situ data from the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) and demonstrate that a better coincidence between calculated and empirical results, accounting for the magnetic field strength in coronal holes, can be achieved.

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Data Availability

The authors declare that the data supporting the findings of this study are available in the paper. The work utilizes data obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Program, managed by the National Solar Observatory, which is operated by AURA, Inc. under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. The data were acquired by instruments operated by the Big Bear Solar Observatory, High Altitude Observatory, Learmonth Solar Observatory, Udaipur Solar Observatory, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, and Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory.

We acknowledge data of GONG (http://jsoc.stanford.edu; http://gong.nso.edu) and Wilcox Solar Observatory (courtesy of J.T. Hoeksema) (http://wso.stanford.edu). The authors gratefully scknowledge M.L. De Rosa for the PFSS code available at SSW (Solar Software) (see https://www.lmsal.com/~derosa/pfsspack/). The ACE solar wind speed data are taken from its web site (https://izw1.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/lvl2DATA_SWICS_2.0.html).

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Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate the anonymous referee for useful comments and suggestions.

The work was financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation.

This study has been partly financially supported (MLD) by the CAS President’s International Fellowship Initiative (PIFI) (Project N 2017VMA0009).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ISTP SB RAS), Lermontov str., 126-a., Irkutsk, 664033, Russia

    M. L. Demidov & P. N. Kirichkov

  2. Solar Science Laboratory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1, Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo, 181-8588, Japan

    Y. Hanaoka

  3. Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 20A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100012, China

    X. F. Wang

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  1. M. L. Demidov
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  2. Y. Hanaoka
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  3. X. F. Wang
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  4. P. N. Kirichkov
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Contributions

MLD wrote the main manuscript text and prepared Figures 1-12. YH provided IRmag synoptic map and took part in the preparation of the text. XFW prepared for processing ACE data and took part in the preparation Figures 12. PNK prepared for processing the GONG synoptic map. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to M. L. Demidov.

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Demidov, M.L., Hanaoka, Y., Wang, X.F. et al. On the Differences in the Ambient Solar Wind Speed Forecasting Caused by Using Synoptic Maps from Different Observatories. Sol Phys 298, 120 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-023-02206-6

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