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On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24

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Abstract

Various forecast techniques have been analyzed with reference to solar activity cycle 24. Three prediction indices have been proposed: the intensity of the polar field, the mean field at the source surface, and a recurrence index of geomagnetic disturbances. As a rule, the forecast based on the polar field and extrapolation of local fields gives a height for cycle 24 that is smaller than that of cycle 23. The use of the recurrence index and the global field value leads us to the conclusion that cycle 24 will be medium high: the same as or somewhat higher than cycle 23.

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  1. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation, 142190, Troitsk, Russia

    V. N. Obridko & B. D. Shelting

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  1. V. N. Obridko
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Correspondence to V. N. Obridko.

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Obridko, V.N., Shelting, B.D. On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24. Sol Phys 248, 191–202 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-008-9138-3

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