Abstract
The paper provides a number of regression equations that can be used to calculate the height of the odd Wolf number cycle. The feasibility of the rule of Gnevyshev-Ohl is analyzed as applied to the geomagneticaa-index. A modified rule of Gnevyshev-Ohl has been formulated to describe the behaviour ofaa-indices. A new method is suggested for early prediction of the next solar cycle. In this method, the angular coefficient (straightline slope) of linear dependence ofaa-indices on the Wolf number at the descending branch of the cycle has been used as a prediction index. It is shown to a high degree of certainty that the new prediction index is related to the height of the forthcoming cycle. While the methods based on the ratio of the even-odd cycles in a pair give very high values of cycle 23 maximum (203.2 ± 10.7), our new index, on the contrary, gives very low values (74.7 ± 6.9). There are some contradictory symptoms indicating that the forthcoming cycle 23 is likely to violate the regularities established for the past 125 years.
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Obridko, V.N. Some comments on the problem of solar cycle prediction. Sol Phys 156, 179–190 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00669583
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00669583