Abstract
The scope of this study is to shed light on the determinants of the time gap between the publication of a Nobel discovery and the bestowment of the prize across three science fields (Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine). The econometric evidence supports that the delay gap is inversely related to the age of the Laureate when the Nobel-worthy contribution was published in Physics and Chemistry but not in Medicine. An increase of the age of the researcher by one year leads to a reduction of the Nobel delay by almost three months on average while sharing the Prize for the same research delays the award by approximately 1.2 years. Lastly, important theoretical discoveries increase the delay by 3.3 years on average, while obtaining the last education degree a year later delays the Nobel Prize by 4.7 months on average.
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Notes
For some excellent examples, see Stephan and Levin (1993).
One could argue that this negative result may have been brought about by the fact that a higher independent variable denoted by X (the later the discovery) would be associated with a lower dependent variable denoted by Y (shorter delay) since the total (Z) sums up to the age of the recipient. However, as seen in Table 1, the data that we have for X (the age at discovery) has a mean 39 and a median 38 with a standard deviation of 8.5, while the Y variable (delay) has a mean of 16.9 and a median of 15 with a standard deviation of 10. In that case, the bulk of the data (taken by both the mean and median entries which are not very different) implies a total age which is about 55 (the Z total) which does not raise a serious bias issue. However, there may be outlier effects that may affect the results but given that the bulk of our data is around a value of Z (total age) that is away from the standard lifespan bound gives us confidence that our results hold. We thank an anonymous referee for spotting this.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the Editor of this journal for allowing them to revise and improve the paper and two anonymous referees for their helpful and fruitful suggestions that enhanced the paper both in substance and appearance. Any remaining errors are solely the authors’ alone. The usual disclaimer applies.
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Polemis, M.L., Stengos, T. What shapes the delay in the Nobel Prize discoveries? A research note. Scientometrics 127, 803–811 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-021-04241-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-021-04241-1