Abstract
This paper presents the findings from a thorough analysis of international technology diffusion (ITD) in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. We construct a novel framework to explore the patterns of ITD in AI based on patent data published from 1970 to 2019. To this aim, we establish a nexus between technology innovation (TI) capacity and international technology diffusion (ITD) degree, and divide the countries/regions into three different groups—the leading, middle and backward. Considering the intersecting characteristic of AI technology, this paper examines the ITD patterns in the whole, single-field and intersecting-field AI technology areas. Empirical results show that: (1) Similar patterns are observed in the whole and single-field AI technology. ITD degree decreases significantly as TI capacity increases in leading countries, while it always remains high though the TI capacity improves in backward countries. Middle countries, however, show a transitional state between the two. (2) Compared to the whole AI and single-field AI technology, the pattern of ITD in intersecting-field AI technology is different. The number of nodes in the intersecting-field AI technology has decreased significantly, and the trend is more pronounced in middle and backward countries than in leading countries. These patterns imply that the technological innovation achievements of middle and backward countries will be first identified and utilized by leading countries, which will broaden the growing digital divide between countries and pose a more significant challenge to achieving technological catch-up in the future.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
As shown in Table 2 of the Appendix, we classify countries with more than 10,000 patent publication records as leading countries, countries with 1000 to 10,000 records as middle countries, and countries with less than 1000 records as backward countries.
It should be added that the reason for our logarithmic fit is to intuitively observe the trend and direction of the nodes' evolution over time rather than causal analysis.
References
Aaronson, S. A., & Leblond, P. (2018). Another digital divide: The rise of data realms and its implications for the WTO. Journal of International Economic Law, 21(2), 245–272.
Agrawal, A., Gans, J., & Goldfarb, A. (2019). Economic policy for artificial intelligence. Innovation Policy and the Economy, 19(1), 139–159.
Alonso, C., Berg, A., Kothari, S., Papageorgiou, C., & Rehman, S. (2020). Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence? IMF Working Papers, 2020(184), 1–42. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556505.001
Andrés, L., Cuberes, D., Diouf, M., & Serebrisky, T. (2010). The diffusion of the Internet: A cross-country analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 34(5–6), 323–340.
Andrews, D., Criscuolo, C., & Gal, P. N. (2015). Frontier firms, technology diffusion, and public policy: Micro evidence from OECD countries. OECD Productivity Working Papers, No. 2, OECD Publishing, Paris, 1–79. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jrql2q2jj7b-en.
Caselli, F., & Coleman, W. J. (2001). Cross-country technology diffusion: The case of computers. American Economic Review, 91(2), 328–335.
Cho, T. S., & Shih, H. Y. (2011). Patent citation network analysis of core and emerging technologies in Taiwan: 1997–2008. Scientometrics, 89(3), 795–811.
Comin, D., & Hobijn, B. (2004). Cross-country technology adoption: Making the theories face the facts. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(1), 39–83.
Cruz-Jesus, F., Oliveira, T., & Bacao, F. (2018). The global digital divide: Evidence and drivers. Journal of Global Information Management (JGIM), 26(2), 1–26.
Duguet, E., & MacGarvie, M. (2005). How well do patent citations measure flows of technology? Evidence from French innovation surveys. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 14(5), 375–393.
Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (1996). Trade-in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD. Journal of International Economics, 40(3–4), 251–278.
Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (1999). International technology diffusion: Theory and measurement. International Economic Review, 40(3), 537–570.
Fu, X., Pietrobelli, C., & Soete, L. (2011). The role of foreign technology and indigenous innovation in the emerging economies: Technological change and catching-up. World Development, 39(7), 1204–1212.
Fujii, H., & Managi, S. (2018). Trends and priority shifts in artificial intelligence technology invention: A global patent analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 58, 60–69.
Furman, J. L., Porter, M. E., & Stern, S. (2002). The determinants of national innovative capacity. Research Policy, 31(6), 899–933.
Globerman, S., Kokko, A., & Sjöholm, F. (2000). International technology diffusion: Evidence from Swedish patent data. Kyklos, 53(1), 17–38.
Gong, G., & Keller, W. (2003). Convergence and polarization in global income levels: A review of recent results on the role of international technology diffusion. Research Policy, 32(6), 1055–1079.
Hafner, K. A. (2008). The pattern of international patenting and technology diffusion. Applied Economics, 40(21), 2819–2837.
Haruna, S., Jinji, N., & Zhang, X. (2010). Patent citations, technology diffusion, and international trade: Evidence from Asian countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 34(4), 365–390.
Ho, C. C., & Tseng, S. F. (2006). From digital divide to digital inequality: The global perspective. International Journal of Internet and Enterprise Management, 4(3), 215–227.
Horowitz, M. C. (2018). Artificial intelligence, international competition, and the balance of power. Texas National Security Review, 1(3), 37–57.
Hsueh, C. C., & Wang, C. C. (2009). The use of social network analysis in knowledge diffusion research from patent data. In 2009 International Conference on Advances in Social Network Analysis and Mining, IEEE, Athens, Greece, 20-22 July 2009, pp. 393–398.
Hu, A. G., & Jaffe, A. B. (2003). Patent citations and international knowledge flow: the cases of Korea and Taiwan. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 21(6), 849–880.
Hu, M. C., & Mathews, J. A. (2005). National innovative capacity in East Asia. Research Policy, 34(9), 1322–1349.
Huang, H. C., & Shih, H. Y. (2012). Exploring the structure of international technology diffusion. In 2012 Proceedings of PICMET’12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies, Vancouver, BC, Canada, 29 July-2 Aug. 2012, pp. 1527–1541.
Huang, Y., Porter, A. L., Zhang, Y., Lian, X., & Guo, Y. (2019). An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 146, 831–843.
Jaffe, A. B., & Trajtenberg, M. (2002). Patents, citations, and innovations: A window on the knowledge economy. MIT Press.
Ji, J., Barnett, G. A., & Chu, J. (2019). Global networks of genetically modified crops technology: A patent citation network analysis. Scientometrics, 118(3), 737–762.
Johnstone, N., Haščič, I., & Kalamova, M. (2010). Environmental policy design characteristics and technological innovation: Evidence from patent data. OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 16, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/5kmjstwtqwhd-en.
Keller, W. (2002). Geographic localization of international technology diffusion. American Economic Review, 92(1), 120–142.
Keller, W. (2004). International technology diffusion. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 752–782.
Li, X., Chen, H., Huang, Z., & Roco, M. C. (2007). Patent citation network in nanotechnology (1976–2004). Journal of Nanoparticle Research, 9(3), 337–352.
Metcalfe, S., & Ramlogan, R. (2008). Innovation systems and the competitive process in developing economies. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 48(2), 433–446.
Perkins, R., & Neumayer, E. (2005). The international diffusion of new technologies: A multi-technology analysis of latecomer advantage and global economic integration. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 95(4), 789–808.
Schiff, M., & Wang, Y. (2006). North-South and South-South trade-related technology diffusion: An industry-level analysis of direct and indirect effects. Canadian Journal of Economics, 39(3), 831–844.
Seck, A. (2012). International technology diffusion and economic growth: Explaining the spillover benefits to developing countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(4), 437–451.
Shih, H. Y., & Chang, T. L. S. (2009). International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(6), 821–834.
Suarez-Villa, L. (1990). Invention, inventive learning, and innovative capacity. Behavioral Science, 35(4), 290–310.
Tsay, M. Y., & Liu, Z. W. (2020). Analysis of the patent cooperation network in global artificial intelligence technologies based on the assignees. World Patent Information, 63(2020), 1–14.
Tseng, C. Y., & Ting, P. H. (2013). Patent analysis for technology development of artificial intelligence: A country-level comparative study. Innovation, 15(4), 463–475.
Verspagen, B. (1991). A new empirical approach to catching up or falling behind. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2(2), 359–380.
Wang, W., & Siau, K. (2018). Artificial intelligence: a study on governance, policies, and regulations. MWAIS 2018 proceedings, 1–5.
Xu, B., & Chiang, E. P. (2005). Trade, patents and international technology diffusion. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 14(1), 115–135.
Yang, W., Yu, X., Zhang, B., & Huang, Z. (2019). Mapping the landscape of international technology diffusion (1994–2017): network analysis of transnational patents. The Journal of Technology Transfer. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-019-09762-9
Zhao, R., Li, X., Li, D. (2020). Research of Institutional Technology Diffusion Rules Based on Patent Citation Network—A Case Study of AI Field. In Zhang, Y. D., Senjyu, T., Chakchai, S., Joshi, A (Eds.), Smart Trends in Computing and Communications (pp. 41–49). Springer, Singapore.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71904096). The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the supporters.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The author declared that there is no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jiang, L., Chen, J., Bao, Y. et al. Exploring the patterns of international technology diffusion in AI from the perspective of patent citations. Scientometrics 127, 5307–5323 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-021-04134-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-021-04134-3