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Graduation Rates and Accountability: Regressions Versus Production Frontiers

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An Erratum to this article was published on 13 October 2007

Abstract

This paper suggests an alternative to the standard practice of measuring the graduation rate performance using regression analysis. The alternative is production frontier analysis. Production frontier analysis is appealing because it compares an institution’s graduation rate to the best performance instead of the average performance. The paper explains the differences between these two types of analysis and provides examples of their application using data for 187 national universities.

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Notes

  1. The first chapter of Burke (2002) provides a good summary of this movement.

  2. See Christal (1998).

  3. See http://www.2.edtrust.org/edtrust/collegeresults (accessed January 19, 2005).

  4. Data Envelopment Analysis is growing in popularity among those interested in efficiency in higher education; see, for example, Johnes (2006) for a recent application of DEA to data from English institutions of higher education.

  5. The adjusted R2 for this regression is .8, and the coefficient for X is statistically significant at the 1% level.

  6. A convex combination is a linear combination of data points where all coefficients or weights assigned to each data point are non-negative and add up to 1. The set of all convex combinations constitutes the convex hull. With only two data points the value of the new point (formed by the convex combination) will lie on a straight line between the two points.

  7. When Thanassoulis (1993) compares regression analysis with production frontier estimation, his first advantage for the production frontier estimation is its freedom from the requirement of a functional form.

  8. One could criticize this linear example as being two simple. A curve with a declining slope might provide a better fit to the data. Yet observations such as firm 1 would still be possible. As our results will demonstrate, there will be points on the extremes that will be technically efficient but below the regression line.

  9. Although the measure of technical efficiency for firm seven will be quite high, there may be a substantial amount of input slack. This is possible at the edge of a frontier if one (or more) input can be reduced without decreasing output. We discuss input slack more thoroughly later in the paper.

  10. Estimating a stochastic frontier requires the researcher to impose a functional form on the relationship between input and output. Stochastic frontiers also allow deviations from the frontier to reflect random shocks as well as inefficiency. The case for a stochastic frontier is stronger if there is a lot of potential for measurement error in the variables.

  11. One of the most commonly used free DEA programs is DEAP 2.1. See Coelli (1992, 1996). Another is EMS 1.3 (Efficiency measurement system) by H. Scheel. This can be downloaded from the net at http://www.wiso.uni-dortmund.de/

  12. See Färe et al. (1994) for a full discussion of the costs and benefits of non-parametric techniques. In brief, we have no theory that tells us that inputs produce graduates with any particular functional form; so non-parametric techniques free us from having to impose an arbitrary structure on the data.

  13. Assuming constant returns to scale would impose a theoretical restriction that doubling the inputs of an efficient school would double the graduation rate. We do not know that this is the case, so we use the less restrictive variable returns to scale assumption that allows the production functions to display either increasing returns (doubling input more than doubles output) or decreasing returns (doubling input less than doubles output). The first code for solving the linear programming problem to identify an efficient unit isoquant in the CRS case dates to Boles (1966). The method became more widely known following the work by Charnes et al. (1978). Banker et al. (1984) extended the CRS model to account for the possibility of variable returns to scale (VRS).

  14. In this paper we are concerned with technical efficiency only. Our inputs have no clear price measure so we cannot determine if there exists any allocative inefficiency. On the other hand, Ferrier and Lovell (1990) argue that input slacks are a measure of allocative inefficiency.

  15. Our use of the 25th percentile for SAT scores follows Mangold et al. (2003).

  16. The technique we use for computing cost per full-time undergraduate is available from the authors on request.

  17. See Pindyck and Rubinfeld (1991, pp. 260–262) for a discussion of this type of estimation. In cases in which the dependent variable is far from the boundaries of 0 and 1, little is gained from the logistic transformation. In our case, since graduation rates are as high as .98, ignoring the boundaries could lead to errors.

  18. Robust standard errors have been adjusted for correlations of error terms across observations. This is an application of White’s correction for heteroskedasticity.

  19. How we measure two of them differs. US News and World Report uses the mean SAT of the entering class. As mentioned earlier, we use the 25th percentile. More importantly, our measure of spending more accurately represents the undergraduate program since we include capital costs and exclude expenditures on graduate programs.

  20. Suppose on average that public universities grade more leniently or offer a less rigorous curriculum than private universities. In this case public institutions could systematically achieve higher than predicted graduation rates, but the difference would not reflect a positive quality difference in favor of public institutions.

  21. In this study we use the multi-stage DEAP Version 2.1 developed by Coelli (1992) to create our approximation of the production frontier for college graduation rates.

  22. With four inputs and one output, each institution not on the efficient frontier can have a maximum of five peers that determine for it the local efficient surface.

  23. The full output of the DEA analysis is available from the authors on request. The full output includes a listing of each school’s peers, the peer weights, a measure of scale efficiency, and all input slacks.

  24. This possibility can be avoided by using truncated regression or tobit analysis instead of ordinary least squares.

  25. Faculty in science departments, for instance, tend to earn more than the university average and the capital needs of most science departments exceeds that of humanities and social science departments.

  26. Many studies of university performance use inputs (like research spending, or classroom hours) as proxies for output. We have focused instead on graduation rates as a clear output, recognizing that this single measure does not capture the full scope of a university’s function.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Robert B. Archibald.

Additional information

An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11162-007-9065-4

Appendices

Appendix 1—The Mathematics of Data Envelopment Analysis

The linear program underlying variable returns to scale output-oriented data envelopment analysis is:

$$ {\max_{\phi,\lambda}}{\phi},\,\hbox{subject to} $$
$$ \begin{array}{ll} (1)& -\phi \hbox{y}_{\rm i} + \hbox{Y}\lambda \ge 0\\ (2)& \hbox{x}_{\rm i}- \hbox{X}\lambda \ge 0\\ (3)& \sum\lambda_{\rm i} = 1\\ (4)& \lambda \ge 0.\\ \end{array} $$

The vector yi represents the outputs for the ith firm, xi is the vector of inputs, λ is an N  ×  1 vector of constants, N is the number of firms in the sample, and 1 ≤ ϕ <  ∞. The proportional increase in output that the ith firm could have obtained if it were on the efficient frontier is ϕ − 1. The technical efficiency score is defined by 1/ϕ, which varies between zero and one.

To understand the results of this linear program note that a solution in which the vector λ has a one for a particular firm and zero’s otherwise and ϕ =  1 will always satisfy all of the constraints. Call this the default solution. If no better solution can be found, the firm is said to be technically efficient. Such an outcome can be the result of two possibilities. First, there may be no other λ vector that satisfies constraints (1), (3), and (4). In this case there is no convex combination of other firms’ outputs that is at least as large as this firm’s output. Second, there may be a different λ vector that satisfies constraints (1), (3), and (4), but, given that λ vector, the 1/ϕ required to satisfy constraint (2) is greater than one. Such a solution is dominated by the default solution. Clearly, these two outcomes will not always occur. There will be firms that have feasible solutions for values of 1/ϕ less than one. These firms are below the production frontier; they are technically inefficient.

Appendix 2—Table of Results

Rank

School

Resid.

TE

Input slacks

DEA

RES

SAT

Top10

Full

Cost

1

8

Auburn Univ.

0.555

1

0

0

0

0

1

13

Bowling Green State Univ.

0.485

1

0

0

0

0

1

5

Brown Univ.

0.830

1

0

0

0

0

1

51

Florida State Univ.

0.195

1

0

0

0

0

1

4

Fordham Univ.

0.840

1

0

0

0

0

1

1

Harvard Univ.

1.374

1

0

0

0

0

1

10

Howard Univ.

0.500

1

0

0

0

0

1

34

Illinois State Univ.

0.268

1

0

0

0

0

1

84

Indiana State Univ.

0.049

1

0

0

0

0

1

20

Indiana Univ.—Bloomington

0.390

1

0

0

0

0

1

68

Johns Hopkins Univ.

0.109

1

0

0

0

0

1

107

Louisiana State Univ.—Baton Rouge

−0.053

1

0

0

0

0

1

56

Louisiana Tech Univ.

0.170

1

0

0

0

0

1

72

Mississippi State Univ.

0.090

1

0

0

0

0

1

73

New School Univ.

0.086

1

0

0

0

0

1

121

Oklahoma State Univ.

−0.133

1

0

0

0

0

1

15

Pace Univ.

0.433

1

0

0

0

0

1

19

Pennsylvania State Univ.

0.396

1

0

0

0

0

1

2

St. John’s Univ.

0.879

1

0

0

0

0

1

33

SUNY—Albany

0.274

1

0

0

0

0

1

16

Syracuse Univ.

0.431

1

0

0

0

0

1

118

Texas A&M Univ.—Commerce

−0.112

1

0

0

0

0

1

76

Univ. of Akron

0.074

1

0

0

0

0

1

35

Univ. of California—Davis

0.266

1

0

0

0

0

1

54

Univ. of California—Irvine

0.181

1

0

0

0

0

1

57

Univ. of Colorado—Denver

0.167

1

0

0

0

0

1

113

Univ. of Georgia

−0.083

1

0

0

0

0

1

40

Univ. of Illinois—Urbana-Champagne

0.243

1

0

0

0

0

1

131

Univ. of Louisville

−0.165

1

0

0

0

0

1

95

Univ. of Missouri—St. Louis

−0.013

1

0

0

0

0

1

14

Univ. of New Hampshire

0.433

1

0

0

0

0

1

6

Univ. of Notre Dame

0.825

1

0

0

0

0

1

55

Univ. of Vermont

0.172

1

0

0

0

0

1

3

Univ. of Virginia

0.843

1

0

0

0

0

1

101

Univ. of Wisconsin—Milwaukee

−0.032

1

0

0

0

0

36

27

Clemson Univ.

0.330

0.999

10

0

0

0

36

58

Univ. of California—Riverside

0.148

0.999

0

0.463

0.065

0

36

87

Univ. of Northern Colorado

0.029

0.999

0

0

0.104

0

39

24

Univ. of Wisconsin—Madison

0.366

0.995

0

0

0.041

0

39

53

Miami Univ.—Oxford

0.182

0.995

17

0

0.129

0

41

39

Tufts Univ.

0.243

0.994

3

0

0.035

0

42

9

Georgetown Univ.

0.520

0.992

0

0

0

705

42

52

Ohio Univ.

0.186

0.992

0

0

0.018

0

44

32

Lehigh Univ.

0.282

0.991

0

0

0.04

2411

45

11

College of William and Mary

0.494

0.989

0

0

0.036

0

46

21

Yale Univ.

0.387

0.987

0

0.047

0

19196

47

12

Northwestern Univ.

0.489

0.985

0

0.052

0

4553

48

17

Pepperdine Univ.

0.412

0.984

0

0.218

0

4664

49

31

Univ. of Michigan—Ann Arbor

0.291

0.981

0

0

0.073

0

50

25

Seton Hall Univ.

0.356

0.980

0

0

0

2823

50

46

Virginia Tech

0.222

0.980

0

0

0.006

0

52

41

Dartmouth Univ.

0.239

0.979

0

0

0

16089

53

7

Univ. of Missouri—Kansas City

0.578

0.976

0

0.089

0

1192

53

30

Univ. of Delaware

0.313

0.976

0

0

0.088

492

55

23

Stanford Univ.

0.371

0.975

0

0.069

0

2133

56

22

Michigan State Univ.

0.376

0.973

0

0

0

0

56

43

DePaul Univ.

0.227

0.973

4

0

0

0

58

29

Duquesne Univ.

0.319

0.972

0

0.224

0

0

59

82

Colorado State Univ.

0.057

0.970

51

0

0

0

60

28

Columbia Univ.

0.320

0.969

0

0.081

0

3159

61

143

Wake Forest Univ.

−0.237

0.968

0

0

0.031

16484

62

70

Univ. of California—Los Angeles

0.098

0.967

0

0.142

0

0

63

59

Univ. of Pennsylvania

0.134

0.964

0

0.109

0

11255

64

26

Univ. of Connecticut

0.342

0.963

0

0

0

0

65

36

Marquette Univ.

0.257

0.961

0

0

0.05

0

65

65

Duke Univ.

0.121

0.961

0

0.048

0

9686

67

127

Univ. of Houston

−0.152

0.960

0

0.049

0.012

0

68

71

Univ. of North Carolina—Chapel Hill

0.097

0.958

0

0.022

0

25

68

96

Univ. of California—Santa Barbara

−0.016

0.958

0

0.283

0

0

70

120

Washington Univ. in St. Louis

−0.130

0.954

0

0.06

0

24288

71

18

Univ. of Denver

0.410

0.952

0

0.019

0

0

71

135

Univ. of Chicago

−0.170

0.952

0

0.035

0

12593

73

145

Massachusetts Inst. of Technology

−0.245

0.948

0

0.101

0

5192

74

60

SUNY—Binghamton

0.134

0.945

0

0

0.007

0

75

112

Univ. of California—San Diego

−0.081

0.944

0

0.149

0

0

76

42

West Virginia Univ.

0.232

0.942

0

0.034

0.011

0

76

115

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

−0.098

0.942

0

0

0.061

0

78

45

Univ. of South Carolina—Columbia

0.223

0.940

0

0.113

0

0

78

119

Univ. of Central Florida

−0.113

0.940

28

0

0

0

80

63

Univ. of the Pacific

0.127

0.935

0

0.035

0.008

0

80

77

Texas A&M Univ.—College Station

0.069

0.935

0

0

0

0

82

141

Rice Univ.

−0.232

0.934

0

0.101

0

13462

82

147

Brandeis Univ.

−0.265

0.934

0

0.01

0

414

82

153

Vanderbilt Univ.

−0.284

0.934

0

0

0.013

0

85

90

Univ. of Southern California

0.018

0.933

0

0.017

0

0

86

105

North Dakota State Univ.

−0.047

0.931

0

0

0.102

0

87

74

Univ. of Massachusetts—Amherst

0.083

0.929

0

0

0

0

88

75

Univ. of San Francisco

0.083

0.925

0

0

0

0

89

104

Univ. of New Mexico

−0.041

0.924

0

0.008

0

0

90

149

Emory Univ.

−0.271

0.923

0

0.171

0

12594

91

50

Univ. of South Dakota

0.198

0.917

0

0

0

0

92

47

Purdue Univ.—West Lafayette

0.205

0.916

0

0.027

0

0

93

126

Univ. of California—Berkeley

−0.148

0.915

0

0.205

0

0

94

81

Univ. of Iowa

0.059

0.914

0

0

0

0

94

99

Univ. of Florida

−0.030

0.914

0

0.129

0

0

96

78

Univ. of Washington

0.062

0.913

0

0.001

0

0

97

80

George Washington Univ.

0.059

0.909

0

0.097

0

0

98

151

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

−0.282

0.908

0

0.017

0

2462

98

186

California Institute of Technology

−0.905

0.908

0

0.211

0

21722

100

83

Univ. of Oregon

0.054

0.905

0

0

0

0

101

44

Western Michigan Univ.

0.223

0.902

0

0.005

0

0

101

86

Iowa State Univ.

0.039

0.902

0

0

0

0

103

69

Northern Illinois Univ.

0.105

0.899

0

0

0

0

103

88

American Univ.

0.025

0.899

0

0.037

0

0

105

116

Univ. of Texas—Austin

−0.108

0.898

0

0.039

0

0

106

48

Univ. of Alabama

0.203

0.896

0

0.077

0

0

107

166

New York Univ.

−0.388

0.893

0

0.187

0

2550

108

64

Loyola Univ. Chicago

0.121

0.889

0

0.051

0

1430

108

109

Kent State Univ.

−0.062

0.889

0

0

0.032

0

110

181

Univ. of Rochester

−0.568

0.888

0

0.088

0

6140

111

38

St. Louis Univ.

0.245

0.887

0

0.044

0

0

112

117

Univ. of San Diego

−0.109

0.886

0

0.166

0

0

113

183

Carnegie Mellon Univ.

−0.654

0.884

0

0.165

0

4520

114

124

Baylor Univ.

−0.144

0.882

0

0.017

0

0

115

100

Clark Univ.

−0.031

0.881

0

0.079

0

410

115

144

Univ. of Montana

−0.238

0.881

0

0

0.124

0

117

138

Univ. of Texas—Dallas

−0.203

0.880

17

0

0

0

118

123

Univ. of Maryland—College Park

−0.144

0.878

0

0.053

0

0

119

62

Univ. of Maine—Orono

0.127

0.876

0

0.018

0

0

119

171

Tulane Univ.

−0.428

0.876

0

0.15

0

26

121

125

Hofstra Univ.

−0.144

0.873

0

0

0

4265

122

66

Univ. of Toledo

0.112

0.872

0

0

0

0

123

91

Univ. of Nebraska—Lincoln

0.016

0.871

0

0.038

0

0

124

140

Univ. of Southern Mississippi

−0.227

0.870

0

0.186

0.041

0

124

173

Case Western Reserve Univ.

−0.454

0.870

33

0.292

0

0

126

98

Univ. of Pittsburgh

−0.024

0.865

0

0

0

0

127

178

Boston Univ.

−0.493

0.865

0

0.177

0

4242

128

177

Clarkson Univ.

−0.490

0.864

0

0.006

0

4291

129

103

Catholic Univ. of America

−0.037

0.861

0

0.117

0

0

130

165

Brigham-Young Univ.—Provo

−0.371

0.859

0

0.155

0

0

131

61

Univ. of North Carolina—Greensboro

0.131

0.858

0

0

0

0

132

97

Washington State Univ.

−0.019

0.856

0

0.216

0.004

0

133

146

Univ. of Maryland—Baltimore County

−0.257

0.855

0

0

0

0

134

85

Oregon State Univ.

0.043

0.854

0

0.054

0

0

135

94

Northeastern Univ.

−0.013

0.848

0

0

0

1318

136

160

Univ. of Miami

−0.322

0.846

0

0.219

0

1146

137

155

Stevens Institute of Technology

−0.296

0.844

15

0.238

0

0

138

67

Univ. of Rhode Island

0.112

0.842

0

0.031

0

0

139

169

Univ. of Missouri—Columbia

−0.401

0.841

0

0.021

0

0

140

110

Ohio State Univ.—Columbus

−0.067

0.837

0

0.079

0

0

140

176

Illinois Institute of Technology

−0.487

0.837

76

0.281

0

0

142

158

Texas Christian Univ.

−0.305

0.836

0

0.125

0

0

143

37

Andrews Univ.

0.253

0.828

0

0

0

2370

144

106

Univ. of Tennessee—Knoxville

−0.047

0.825

0

0.054

0

0

145

79

Univ. of Idaho

0.062

0.819

0

0.035

0

0

145

179

Univ. of California—Santa Cruz

−0.535

0.819

0

0.679

0

110

147

130

Wichita State Univ.

−0.162

0.818

0

0

0

256

147

133

North Carolina State Univ.—Raleigh

−0.167

0.818

0

0.018

0

0

149

92

Univ. of Wyoming

−0.006

0.816

0

0.095

0

0

150

49

Temple Univ.

0.200

0.809

0

0.031

0

2687

150

93

Northern Arizona Univ.

−0.012

0.809

0

0.077

0

0

152

111

Univ. of Kansas

−0.079

0.807

0

0.071

0

0

153

134

Univ. of Mississippi

−0.169

0.804

0

0.165

0.003

0

154

142

Univ. of Kentucky

−0.235

0.801

0

0.055

0

0

155

89

Univ. of Utah

0.025

0.799

0

0.044

0

0

156

136

Univ. of Oklahoma

−0.181

0.794

0

0.119

0

0

157

154

SUNY—Buffalo

−0.291

0.792

0

0.035

0

700

158

162

Univ. of Alabama—Huntsville

−0.326

0.791

0

0.228

0

0

159

108

Old Dominion Univ.

−0.059

0.790

0

0.052

0

0

160

150

Drexel Univ.

−0.277

0.789

0

0.019

0

0

161

161

Montana State Univ.

−0.325

0.788

0

0.018

0.107

0

162

122

Nova Southeastern Univ.

−0.133

0.779

0

0.118

0

0

163

129

Texas Tech Univ.

−0.161

0.774

0

0.048

0

0

164

132

Florida Institute of Technology

−0.167

0.765

0

0.09

0

0

165

182

Michigan Technological Univ.

−0.577

0.762

0

0.126

0

0

166

114

Ball State Univ.

−0.085

0.759

0

0

0

144

166

159

SUNY—Stony Brook

−0.307

0.759

0

0.064

0

369

168

102

Virginia Commonwealth Univ.

−0.037

0.758

0

0

0

356

169

152

Univ. of Arizona

−0.284

0.755

0

0.139

0

0

170

139

Middle Tennessee State Univ.

−0.217

0.744

0

0

0.039

0

171

137

Univ. of South Florida

−0.184

0.736

0

0.102

0

100

171

148

Univ. of North Texas

−0.269

0.736

0

0.044

0

0

173

163

Univ. of Hawaii—Manoa

−0.366

0.726

0

0.137

0

74

174

157

Arizona State Univ.

−0.303

0.719

0

0.117

0

0

175

156

Southern Illinois Univ.—Carbondale

−0.302

0.712

0

0

0

663

176

164

Univ. of North Dakota

−0.371

0.706

0

0.061

0

1175

177

187

Univ. of Missouri—Rolla

−1.126

0.702

0

0.209

0

0

178

175

Univ. of Arkansas—Fayetteville

−0.475

0.701

0

0.122

0.011

0

179

172

Univ. of Minnesota—Twin Cities

−0.441

0.700

0

0.077

0

0

180

170

Indiana Univ. of Pennsylvania

−0.412

0.693

0

0.062

0

633

181

128

Wright State Univ.

−0.157

0.681

0

0

0

844

182

185

Univ. of Tulsa

−0.860

0.679

0

0.199

0

1094

183

184

Polytechnic Univ.

−0.675

0.676

0

0.152

0

1952

184

168

New Jersey Institute of Technology

−0.398

0.667

0

0.084

0

0

185

167

Univ. of Texas—Arlington

−0.392

0.660

0

0.068

0

0

186

180

Univ. of Illinois—Chicago

−0.545

0.647

0

0.096

0

1256

187

174

Univ. of Alabama—Birmingham

−0.469

0.564

0

0.048

0

1015

Appendix 3—Ranking Efficient Schools Using Super Efficiency Analysis

One of the difficulties of using production frontier analysis is that it generates a large group of efficient institutions with identical technical efficiency scores of 1.00. This leaves us unable to produce a ranking among efficient schools or make any efficiency comparisons among them. In our case 35 schools would be ranked as number one. The notion of “super efficiency scores” has been designed as a partial solution to this problem.

Andersen and Petersen (1993) developed super efficiency scores as a measure of how much the efficient boundary is moved because a particular firm is present in the data. It is easy to illustrate the calculation of super efficiency scores by using the example in Fig. 2. If we eliminated firm 3, the production frontier would contain a segment between firm 2 and firm 7. The measure of super efficiency for firm 3 would be firm 3’s output over the output for firm 3’s inputs on the altered production frontier. If we eliminated firm 2, firm 5 would become efficient, and the super efficiency score for firm 2 would be its output over the output for its inputs on the new segment of the altered production frontier between the points for firm 1 and firm 5. Point 1 presents a problem. If we eliminate firm 1, the new production frontier will be vertical at the input of firm 2. There is no way to project firm 1’s output on to this altered production frontier, and as a result it is impossible to define a super efficiency score in this case.

Table A1 gives the super efficiency scores for the efficient institutions with the institutions with undefined super efficiency scores in alphabetical order followed by the other in order of their super efficiency scores. The institutions with undefined super efficiency scores have an average graduation rate of 41.7%, well below the average. Those for which we could calculate super efficiency scores have much more varied graduation rates, which are generally higher. It is not surprising that St. Johns University and Fordham University, two institutions that are frequent peers of institutions in the lower right quadrant of Fig. 3 also have very high super efficiency scores. These two institutions push out the production frontier more than do most of the other efficient institutions.

Table A1 Super efficiency scores for efficient institutions

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Archibald, R.B., Feldman, D.H. Graduation Rates and Accountability: Regressions Versus Production Frontiers. Res High Educ 49, 80–100 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-007-9063-6

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