Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Political partisanship versus turnout in Italy’s 2016 referendum

  • Published:
Quality & Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Italy’s 2016 referendum represents an opportunity to discuss the main hypotheses posited by current literature as to the determinants of referendums. The issue-voting of this constitutional referendum was too technical to arouse great passions in the voters. This provided room for second-order determinants, and the referendum campaign became a competition between Government and Opposition. In such a scenario, political partisanship is expected to play a significant role in the voter’s choice. This paper intends to test the impact of partisanship on the vote, versus that of further possible determinants: intra-party dissent, the voters’ dissatisfaction with the government, as well as the referendum turnout. Particular attention has been paid to the latter, also because the impact of turnout on referendums is understudied. Correlations and linear regression models, based on data of all the Italian provinces, revealed that, apart from partisanship, other second-order features impacted on the referendum outcome: in particular, it emerged that, where the turnout had been higher, the “No” share was lower. However, the turnout was intertwined with other determinants, first of all, partisanship. To disentangle the turnout from its correlates, a lagged instrument, namely the turnout of the previous referendum held in 2006, was introduced. The Two-Stage Least Squares model proved the instrument to be a robust predictor of the 2016 referendum vote. The result of a mediation model further supported these findings, which suggest that the turnout—as an expression of civic commitment—is not independent of the voters’ decision.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Employing an instrumental variable, only that portion of the variations of X which can be explained by the instrument (and any other explanatory variable) is used to infer about Y. Notation for IV 2SLS models:

    \(\ {\text{Structural Equation}}:{ {Y}} = \alpha_{0} + \beta_{1} X_{1} + \beta_{2} X_{2} + \varepsilon_{1}\)

    \({\text{First Stage}}:X_{1} { = }\alpha_{1} + \beta_{3} Z + \beta_{4} X_{2} + \varepsilon_{2} \to predict\;\hat{X}_{1} ,\;\hat{\varepsilon }_{2}\)

    \({\text{Second Stage}}:Y{ = }\alpha_{2} + \beta_{5} \hat{X}_{1} + \beta_{6} X_{2} + \left( {\varepsilon_{3} + \beta_{5} \hat{\varepsilon }_{2} } \right)\)

    where X1 is endogenous, X2 exogenous and Z the instrument.

  2. This test performs an OLS regression of the original Y on the original X, augmented by the residuals obtained from the first-stage regression of X on the instrument, and followed by an F-test for the hypothesis that the coefficient of the residuals is zero. Alternatively, regressing Y on X and the instrument, an F-test on the instrument coefficient would produce the same results.

  3. Elasticity was calculated as average value of dy/dx * (x/y).

  4. A mediation model clarifies the relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables by including a further, mediator, variable. In a mediation model, the explanatory variables are expected to influence the mediator variable, which in turn influences the response variable.

References

  • Aguiar-Conraria, L., Magalhães, P.C.: Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout. Public Choice 144, 63–81 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alaimo, L.S., Solivetti, L.M.: Territorial determinants of the Brexit vote. Soc. Indic. Res. (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-019-02066-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnorsson, A., Zoega, G.: On the causes of Brexit. Eur. J. Polit. Econ. 55, 301–323 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Atkeson, L.R., Partin, R.W.: Economic and referendum voting: a comparison of gubernatorial and senatorial elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 89, 99–107 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Banfield, E.C.: The Moral Basis of a Backward Society. Free Press; Research Center in Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago, Glencoe (1958)

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker, S.O., Fetzer, T., Novy, D.: Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis. Econ. Policy 32, 601–650 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bell, R.M.: Fate and Honor, Family and Village: Demographic and Cultural Change in Rural Italy Since 1800. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1979)

    Google Scholar 

  • Blais, A., Galais, C.: Measuring the civic duty to vote: a proposal. Elect. Stud. 41, 60–69 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowler, S., Donovan, T.: Civic duty and turnout in the UK referendum on AV: what shapes the duty to vote? Elect. Stud. 32, 265–273 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brady, H.E., Verba, S., Schlozman, K.L.: Beyond SES: a resource model of political participation. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 89, 271–294 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breusch, T.S., Pagan, A.R.: A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica 47, 1287–1294 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butler, D., Ranney, A.: Referendums Around the World: The Growing Use of Direct Democracy. Aei Press, Washington, DC (1994)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, A., Converse, P.E., Stokes, D.E., Miller, W.E.: The American Voter. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1960)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ceccarini, L., Bordignon, F.: Referendum on Renzi: the 2016 vote on the Italian constitutional revision. South Eur. Soc. Polit. 22, 281–302 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, H., Sanders, D., Stewart, M., Whiteley, P.: Taking the bloom off New Labour’s rose: party choice and voter turnout in Britain, 2005. J. Elect. Public Opinion Parties 16, 3–36 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, H.D., Goodwin, M., Whiteley, P.: What if Everyone had Voted in the EU Referendum? https://ukandeu.ac.uk/what-if-everyone-had-voted-in-the-eu-referendum/ (2016). Accessed 8 Feb 2018

  • Clarke, H.D., Goodwin, M., Whiteley, P.: Why Britain voted for Brexit: an individual-level analysis of the 2016 referendum vote. Parliam. Aff. 70, 439–464 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clem, R.S., Chodakiewicz, M.J.: Poland divided: spatial differences in the June 2003 EU accession referendum. Eurasian Geogr. Econ. 45, 475–490 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J.S.: Social capital in the creation of human capital. Am. J. Sociol. 94, S95–S120 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colombo, C., De Angelis, A., Morisi, D.: New survey evidence: Renzi’s support is damaging the chances of a yes vote in Italy’s referendum. LSE European Politics and Policy Blog. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/ (2016). Accessed 10 Sept 2019

  • Cook, R.D., Weisberg, S.: Diagnostics for heteroscedasticity in regression. Biometrika 70, 1–10 (1983)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crampton, E., Farrant, A.: Expressive and instrumental voting: the Scylla and Charybdis of constitutional political economy. Const. Polit. Econ. 15, 77–88 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Agostino, R.B., Belanger, A.: A suggestion for using powerful and informative tests of normality. Am. Stat. 44, 316–321 (1990)

    Google Scholar 

  • Dardanelli, P.: Democratic deficit or the Europeanisation of secession? Explaining the devolution referendums in Scotland. Polit. Stud. 53, 320–342 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, R., MacKinnon, J.G.: Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. Oxford University Press, New York (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  • Dennison, J., Draege, J.B.: Unless the yes campaign can shift tactics, Italy’s constitutional referendum is heading for a no vote. LSE European Politics and Policy Blog. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/ (2016). Accessed 12 Aug 2019

  • de Vreese, C.H., Boomgaarden, H.G.: Projecting EU referendums: fear of immigration and support for European integration. Eur. Union Polit. 6, 59–82 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downs, A.: An economic theory of political action in a democracy. J. Polit. Econ. 65, 135–150 (1957)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eichenberg, R.C., Dalton, R.J.: Europeans and the European community: the dynamics of public support for European integration. Int. Org. 47, 507–534 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiorina, M.P.: Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: a micro-analysis. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 22, 426–443 (1978)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flickinger, R.S., Studlar, D.T.: One Europe, many electorates? Models of turnout in European Parliament elections after 2004. Comp. Polit. Stud. 40, 383–404 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franklin, M.N.: The dynamics of electoral participation. In: Leduc, L., Niemi, R., Norris, P. (eds.) Comparing Democracies 2: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective, pp. 148–168. Sage, Thousand Oaks (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Franklin, M.N., van der Eijk, C., Marsh, M.: Referendum outcomes and trust in government: public support for Europe in the wake of Maastricht. West Eur. Polit. 18, 101–117 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fukuyama, F.: Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity. Free Press, New York (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldfarb, R.S., Sigelman, L.: Does ‘civic duty’ ‘solve’ the rational choice voter turnout puzzle? J. Theor. Polit. 22, 275–300 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, M., Caul, M.: Declining voter turnout in advanced industrial democracies, 1950 to 1997: the effects of declining group mobilization. Comp. Polit. Stud. 33, 1091–1122 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S.B.: How parties affect vote choice in European integration referendums. Party Polit. 12, 623–647 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S.B.: The Brexit vote: a divided nation, a divided continent. J. Eur. Public Policy 23, 1259–1277 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hug, S., Sciarini, P.: Referendums on European integration: do institutions matter in the voter’s decision? Comp. Polit. Stud. 33, 3–36 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inglehart, R.: Changing value priorities and European integration. JCMS J. Common Market Stud. 10, 1–36 (1971)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Istat: BES: Il benessere equo e sostenibile in Italia. Istat, Rome (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaniovski, S., Mueller, D.C.: Community size, heterogeneity and voter turnouts. Public Choice 129, 399–415 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lassen, D.D.: The effect of information on voter turnout: evidence from a natural experiment. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 49, 103–118 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laycock, S.: Is referendum voting distinctive? Evidence from three UK cases. Elect. Stud. 32, 236–252 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leduc, L.: Opinion change and voting behaviour in referendums. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 41, 711–732 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lubbers, M., Gijsberts, M., Scheepers, P.: Extreme right-wing voting in Western Europe. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 41, 345–378 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, G., Marsh, M.: Introduction: consequences of low turnout. Elect. Stud. 26, 539–547 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marradi, A.: Italy’s referendum on divorce: survey and ecological evidence analyzed. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 4, 115–139 (1976)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsusaka, J.G., Palda, F.: Voter turnout: how much can we explain? Public Choice 98, 431–446 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Netjes, C.E., Binnema, H.A.: The salience of the European integration issue: three data sources compared. Elect. Stud. 26, 39–49 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nouvellet, P.: Age matters in the UK’s Brexit referendum. Significance 14, 30–33 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pasquino, G., Valbruzzi, M.: Italy says no: the 2016 constitutional referendum and its consequences. J. Modern Ital. Stud. 22, 145–162 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce, R., Valen, H., Listhaug, O.: Referendum voting behavior: the Norwegian and British referenda on membership in the European Community. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 27, 43–63 (1983)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R.D.: Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. Simon & Schuster, New York (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R.D., Leonardi, R., Nanetti, R.: Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  • Qvortrup, M. (ed.): Referendums Around the World: The Continued Growth of Direct Democracy. Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  • Qvortrup, M.: Referendums on membership and European integration 1972–2015. Polit. Q. 87, 61–68 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Remmer, K.L., Gélineau, F.: Subnational electoral choice: economic and referendum voting in Argentina, 1983–1999. Comp. Polit. Stud. 36, 801–821 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ricolfi, L.: Sinistra e popolo: il conflitto politico nell’era dei populismi. Longanesi, Milano (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Riker, W.H., Ordeshook, P.C.: A theory of the calculus of voting. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 62, 25–42 (1968)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, W.S.: Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. Am. Sociol. Rev. 15, 351–357 (1950)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Royston, P.: Estimating departure from normality. Stat. Med. 10, 1283–1293 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, G., Weitsman, P.A.: The punishment trap: integration referendums as popularity contests. Comp. Polit. Stud. 28, 582–607 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Selb, P., Kriesi, H., Hänggli, R., Marr, M.: Partisan choices in a direct-democratic campaign. Eur. Polit. Sci. Rev. 1, 155–172 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen, A.: Mortality as an indicator of economic success and failure. Econ. J. 108, 1–25 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon, C.A., Matland, R.E., Wendell, D.G., Tatalovich, R.: Voting turnout and referendum outcomes on same-sex marriage, 1998–2015. Soc. Sci. Q. 99, 1522–1534 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon, D.M.: Presidents, governors, and electoral accountability. J. Polit. 51, 286–304 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smets, K., van Ham, C.: The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout. Elect. Stud. 32, 344–359 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solivetti, L.M.: Immigration, socio-economic conditions and crime: a cross-sectional versus cross-sectional time-series perspective. Qual. Quant. 52, 1779–1805 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Szczerbiak, A., Taggart, P.: The politics of European referendum outcomes and turnout: two models. West Eur. Polit. 27, 557–583 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uleri, P.V.: On referendum voting in Italy: YES, NO or non–vote? How Italian parties learned to control referendums. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 41, 863–883 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van der Eijk, C., Franklin, M.N.: Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (1996)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Verba, S., Nie, N.H.: Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. Harper & Row, New York (1972)

    Google Scholar 

  • Weschle, S.: Two types of economic voting: how economic conditions jointly affect vote choice and turnout. Elect. Stud. 34, 39–53 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy

    Luigi M. Solivetti

  2. Viale Quattro Venti, 104, Rome, 00152, Italy

    Luigi M. Solivetti

Authors
  1. Luigi M. Solivetti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Luigi M. Solivetti.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

See Table 5.

Table 5 Summary statistics for the Italian provinces
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Solivetti, L.M. Political partisanship versus turnout in Italy’s 2016 referendum. Qual Quant 54, 709–734 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00951-0

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00951-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation