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How do we tell authoritarian diffusion from illusion? Exploring methodological issues of qualitative research on authoritarian diffusion

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Abstract

With the recent proliferation of comparative authoritarianism studies, a new research agenda on authoritarian diffusion has emerged. Authoritarian diffusion concerns the study of how events, institutions, and strategies relevant for autocratic political systems travel between them. So far, scholars have strived towards proving that authoritarian diffusion is real and is happening across a wide range of contexts. Now the time has come for the field to develop further. This involves improving our understanding of how important diffusion effects really are (the effect size), how diffusion effects come about (the mechanisms), and how contextual factors shape these two (diffusion’s conditional nature). To do this, more methodological reflection and rigor is needed. The aim of this paper is to push qualitative researchers of authoritarian diffusion to reflect more upon the methodological issues and challenges associated with examining diffusion in autocratic contexts. Based on a survey of the existing qualitative literature, we show that insufficient attention to issues such as case-selection, causal mechanisms and evidentiary requirements, restrictions on data availability, process-tracing methods, and alternative explanations is holding back the emergent research field on authoritarian diffusion. We provide researchers involved in this research agenda with guidance on both potential pitfalls and feasible solutions, and where possible we draw on best-practice examples from within the field itself and the wider diffusion literature. Authoritarian diffusion is a challenging topic to study; only conscious, analytical stringency and serious methodological reflection will pave the way for its further advancement.

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Notes

  1. Though, it should be noted that many of the issues we raise throughout this article—in particular, the requirement of proving causality at the decision-making level that is often associated with authoritarian diffusion claims—apply to quantitative studies as well (Starke 2013, p. 562; Marsh and Sharman 2009, p. 273).

  2. While most diffusion processes occur between different political systems—i.e., from the outside in—it is possible that diffusion can occur within a given political system, either from its past or from subregions which influence the policies of the wider state. For example, Viktor Yanukovych, learned from his prior defeat in the Orange Revolution and instituted a strategy of preventing another color revolution when he assumed the presidency in 2010 (Hall 2017a). In democratic contexts, Béland, et al (2018, p. 528) examined how ‘bottom-up’ policy diffusion operates in federal systems so that “policies pursued by lower levels of government, such as municipalities and states, can diffusion to higher levels of government, including national governments.”  Similar dynamics can occur within authoritarian settings as well.

  3. Several of these studies could be placed in multiple cells, since the research questions they examined were not limited to a single combination of issue areas or diffusion-drivers.

  4. A smaller number of scholars (see, for example, Weyland 2009; Dukalskis and Raymond 2018) within authoritarian diffusion research also advance a third logic of action—the bounded rationality approach. However, in an attempt to keep Table 1 as simple as possible, we decided to leave this out.

  5. Even if this is merely the prominence of the external actor.

  6. Such as through media reports.

  7. For authoritarian diffusion research, this is clearest when a lack of data availability makes it more difficult to fulfill the evidentiary requirements for positively confirming that a diffusion process has occurred.

  8. This is what Solingen (2012) in her seminal article referred to as sedimentation and firewalls.

  9. He did blunt the sharpness of this statement, though, correctly noting that solid research does occur in authoritarian contexts.

  10. For a strong reply to this critique, see Bunce and Wolchik (2009).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, North Dakota State University, NDSU Dept. 2315, Fargo, ND, 59108-6050, USA

    Thomas Ambrosio

  2. Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Bartholins Allé 7, Building 1331, 230, 8000, Aarhus, Denmark

    Jakob Tolstrup

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  1. Thomas Ambrosio
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Ambrosio, T., Tolstrup, J. How do we tell authoritarian diffusion from illusion? Exploring methodological issues of qualitative research on authoritarian diffusion. Qual Quant 53, 2741–2763 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00892-8

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