Abstract
This paper quantifies the spreading speed, scale and influence of online information. Based on the epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, we propose a piecewise SIR model to study the problem of information spreading in online social networks. In the model, we propose that the recovery rate of spreaders should be a piecewise function rather than a constant. Only in this way can the model reveal the different roles of online spreaders in different spreading periods. Based on this piecewise recovery rate, we give a formula to calculate the sustained influence of a message. Calculation results of Weibo data show that there is no a proportional relationship between the sustained influence of a message and the number of spreaders. This finding not only is of great significance for the control of negative information, but also is of great reference value for the promotion of positive information. Moreover, our model can be used to predict the number of spreaders and compute a reasonable intervention time in emergency management. The quantitative model we proposed provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of emergency measures.
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Jiang, P., Yan, X. A quantitative model for the spread of online information. Qual Quant 53, 1981–2001 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00851-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00851-3