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Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives

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Abstract

In this paper, we translate the five narratives as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) research community into five alternative demographic scenarios using projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries up to 2100. The scenarios represent a significant step beyond past population scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change context, which considered only population size. The definitions of the medium assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration and education trends are taken from a major new projections effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, while the assumptions for all the other scenarios were defined in interactions with other groups in the SSP community. Since a full data base with all country-specific results is available online, this paper can only highlight selected results.

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Notes

  1. www.wittgensteincentre.org/dataexplorer.

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Acknowledgments

Partial support for this work was provided by the European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Investigator Grant focusing on “Forecasting Societies’ Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change” (ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc). Parts of the descriptions of the SSP definitions and the results presented here resemble descriptions of the same material in other contexts, in particular in KC and Lutz (forthcoming in Global Environmental Change) and KC and Lutz (Chapter 12 in Lutz, Butz and KC, Eds 2014).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Samir KC & Wolfgang Lutz

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  1. Samir KC
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  2. Wolfgang Lutz
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Correspondence to Samir KC.

Appendix

Appendix

See Table 4.

Table 4 Country groupings
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KC, S., Lutz, W. Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives. Popul Environ 35, 243–260 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0205-4

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