Abstract
The thesis of this article is that the nature of probability is centered on its formal properties, not on any of its standard interpretations. Section 2 is a survey of Bayesian applications. Section 3 focuses on two examples from physics that seem as completely objective as other physical concepts. Section 4 compares the conflict between subjective Bayesians and objectivists about probability to the earlier strident conflict in physics about the nature of force. Section 5 outlines a pragmatic approach to the various interpretations of probability. Finally, Sect. 6 argues that the essential formal nature of probability is expressed in the standard axioms, but more explicit attention should be given to the concept of randomness.
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It is a pleasure to dedicate this article to Brian Skyrms on the occasion of his 70th birthday. We have been talking about philosophical matters for more than 30 years, and I have learned much from these talks as well as his books.
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Suppes, P. The nature of probability. Philos Stud 147, 89–102 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-009-9453-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-009-9453-z