Abstract
The United States faces multiple political challenges to achieving the rapid cuts in carbon emissions called for by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these are the long-standing issue of partisan polarization and the newly emerging problem of climate doom and defeatism. These challenges are not only barriers to agenda-setting and enactment, but can also threaten the durability of policies over time. This study uses a survey experiment from a nationally representative sample (n = 1760) to examine the impact of partisan cues and fatalistic rhetoric on support for the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act. We find that Republicans and Independents exposed to Democratic Party cues expressed less support for the IRA. We also find that Independents respondents exposed to a fatalistic message had reduced support for the IRA. These findings underscore the importance of framing in the post-enactment period and suggest that the IRA may be vulnerable to retrenchment or reversal.
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Notes
The International Energy Agency (2023) recently found that “solar PV [photovoltaics] and onshore wind remain the lowest cost options for new electricity generation in most countries.” An International Renewable Energy Agency (2022) report similarly “shows almost two-thirds of renewable power added in 2021 had lower costs than the cheapest coal-fired options in G20 countries.”
Roughly $43 billion of the tax incentives are targeted at consumers, while $216 billion are aimed at corporations. The law also included another $82 billion in grants and $40 billion in loans (Badlam et al., 2022).
Fatalism should be distinguished from fear-based appeals, which have long been a staple of environmental discourse (see O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009). In particular, fatalistic messaging is associated with dread, defined by Haltinner et al. (2021) as a deep, intensely troubling “anticipatory fear that endures over time.”
In some climate communication studies, statistical models include measures of political orientation on a scale from 1 (extremely liberal) to 7 (extremely conservative) (see Wolsko et al., 2016). However, these studies do not explicitly theorize about individuals who identify as Independent.
There were five statements, but we have ignored responses to the third because it used double negative wording that likely confused some respondents. It states that “the new law does not do enough to reduce climate change threats significantly.”
Cronbach’s alpha levels of 0.8 or higher are considered reliable for most empirical research (Nunnally & Berstein, 1994).
For the index, we recoded all the variables so that increased values reflected increased support for the IRA.
To explore this, we ran regression analyses interacting education level (a proxy for knowledge) and treatment conditions, but we found no significant effects of the interaction term on attitudes toward the IRA. Future survey research should include questions to assess familiarity with the policy and its impacts on attitudes.
In comparison, 16% of Democrats and 15% of Republican in our sample fell into the same category.
Studies are just beginning to investigate whether framing climate change in catastrophic terms matters for public perceptions (see Feldman & Hart, 2021). Future research should continue to monitor how fatalistic framing influences policy attitudes.
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Appendices
Appendix 1
See Table
2.
Appendix 2
Preamble (fatalistic frame)
Climate change is the defining crisis of our time. It is happening even more quickly than we feared and may soon outpace our ability to adapt. Rising temperatures and accompanying increases in sea level are fueling natural disasters, weather extremes, food and water insecurity, economic disruption, conflict, and terrorism. We are in the midst of a mass extinction of our own making.
Condition #1 (description of policy)
A new law from August 2022 includes $369 billion in funding to fight climate change. Among dozens of provisions, the legislation includes rebates for electric cars and the installation of energy efficient heat pumps and water heaters, as well as tax credits for homeowners to install rooftop solar panels. The legislation also invests in the production of clean energy, such as solar panels and wind turbines, and opens 2 million acres of public lands for oil and gas leasing. Altogether, these provisions could help the United States reduce its carbon emissions by 40% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.
Condition #2 (description of policy with party cues)
In August 2022, President Biden signed a new law that includes $369 billion in funding to fight climate change. The legislation was a collective effort led by environmental groups, labor advocates, and key Democratic leaders in Congress. Among dozens of provisions, the legislation includes rebates for electric cars and the installation of energy efficient heat pumps and water heaters, as well as tax credits for homeowners to install rooftop solar panels. The legislation also invests in the production of clean energy, such as solar panels and wind turbines, and opens 2 million acres of public lands for oil and gas leasing. Altogether, these provisions could help the United States reduce its carbon emissions by 40% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.
Appendix 3
See Table
3.
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Merry, M.K., Payne, R.A. Climate fatalism, partisan cues, and support for the Inflation Reduction Act. Policy Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-024-09532-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-024-09532-x