Skip to main content
Log in

The ambiguity in IPCC’s risk diagram raises explanatory challenges

  • Letter to the Editor
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The concept of risk remains a key aspect in the recently published 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC risk diagram shows risk as a function of three elements: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. While this relationship is undisputed, simply superimposing the individual risk factors as presented in the IPCC diagram does not do justice to the underlying definitions of the terms. This diagram can thus confuse more than it clarifies and, we argue, should be reconsidered.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

References

  • Alexander D (2004) Natural hazards on an unquiet earth. In: Matthews J, Herbert D (eds) Unifying geography. Common heritage, shared future. Routledge, London, pp 266–282

  • de Sherbinin A, Bukvic A, Rohat G, Gall M, McCusker B, Preston B, Apotsos A, Fish C, Kienberger S, Muhonda P, Wilhelmi O, Macharia D, Shubert W, Sliuzas R, Tomaszewski B, Zhang S (2019) Climate vulnerability mapping: a systematic review and future prospects. Wires Clim Change 10(5):e600. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Estoque RC, Ishtiaque A, Parajuli J, Athukorala D, Rabby YW, Ooba M (2023) Has the IPCC’s revised vulnerability concept been well adopted? Ambio 52:376–389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01806-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs S, Keiler M, Zischg A (2015) A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15(9):2127–2142. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelman I (2018) Lost for words amongst disaster risk science vocabulary. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 9(3):281–291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-018-0188-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oppenheimer M, Campos M, Warren R, Birkmann J, Luber G, O’Neill B, Takahashi K (2014) Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ et al. (eds) Climate Change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1039–1099

  • International Standards Organisation (ed) (2021) ISO 14091:2021, Adaptation to climate change–guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment. International Standards Organisation, Geneva

  • Papathoma-Köhle M, Gems B, Sturm M, Fuchs S (2017) Matrices, curves and indicators: a review of approaches to assess physical vulnerability to debris flows. Earth Sci Rev 171:272–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.06.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papathoma-Köhle M, Thaler T, Fuchs S (2021) An institutional approach to vulnerability: evidence from natural hazard management in Europe. Environ Res Lett 16(4):044056. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe88c

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pörtner H-O, Roberts DC, Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Tignor M, Poloczanska E, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Nicolai M, Okem A, Petzold J, Rama B, Weyer NM (eds) (2019) IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Pörtner H-O, Roberts DC, Tignor M, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A, Rama B (eds) (2022) Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Reisinger A, Howden M, Vera C, Garschagen M, Hurlbert M, Kreibiehl S, Mach KJ, Mintenbeck K, O’Neill B, Pathak M, Pedace R, Pörtner H-O, Poloczanska E, Corradi MR, Sillmann J, van Aalst M, Viner D, Jones R, Ruane AC, Ranasinghe R (2020) The concept of risk in the IPCC sixth assessment report: a summary of cross-working group discussions. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Sorg L, Medina N, Feldmeyer D, Sanchez A, Vojinovic Z, Birkmann J, Marchese A (2018) Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability. Nat Hazards 92(1):257–282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3207-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spielman SE, Tuccillo J, Folch DC, Schweikert A, Davies R, Wood N, Tate E (2020) Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the social vulnerability index. Nat Hazards 100(1):417–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03820-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR [United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction] (2015) Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030. United Nations, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR [United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction] (2017) Terminology on disaster risk reduction. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. https://www.undrr.org/terminology. Assessed 18 Dec 2023

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors kindly acknowledge the support of Kati Heinrich for the graphic design of Fig. 1.

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

All authors contributed to the manuscript and commented on previous versions. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sven Fuchs.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Fuchs, S., Karagiorgos, K., Keiler, M. et al. The ambiguity in IPCC’s risk diagram raises explanatory challenges. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06643-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06643-9

Keywords

Navigation