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Deciphering the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought in Ben Tre province, Vietnam

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Abstract

The low-lying Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a key agricultural production landscape increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stresses and climate change. Among the different threats, droughts caused by extreme events, climate change and upstream developments, affect the delta the most. This paper explores the relationship between the intensity, duration, and frequency of meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts using a range of indices. We used monthly rainfall and stream flow data for the period 1992–2021 to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and the streamflow drought Index (SDI) for different time intervals. We found no observed time lag, and a strong correlation coefficient between upstream hydrological and downstream meteorological drought events assessed over long-term scales (i.e., 12-months). This is true for all downstream sites, except Ben Tre City. Hydrological drought events onset lagged 5–6-, 6-, and 3–4-month behind meteorological droughts at mid- and shorter assessment time scales (9-, 6-, 3-month). The average correlation coefficients between hydrological indices and meteorological indices at 9–3-month time scales ranged from moderate to weak. These findings shed light and advance the understanding of the progression of meteorological to hydrological droughts in the VMD. Our results aid the regional understanding of drought onset and the causative mechanisms at work, which is important for both medium- and long-term drought forecasting and adaptation planning.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Resources Department, College of Environment and Natural Resources, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam

    Huynh Vuong Thu Minh & Nigel K. Downes

  2. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, 240-0115, Japan

    Pankaj Kumar

  3. Department of Personnel, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam

    Nguyen Van Toan

  4. Department of Land Resources, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam

    Phan Chi Nguyen

  5. Faculty of Hydraulic Engineering, College of Engineering, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam

    Tran Van Ty

  6. Department of Environmental Engineering, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam

    Kim Lavane

  7. Department of Agricultural Development, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam

    Nguyen Thanh Tam

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  1. Huynh Vuong Thu Minh
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  2. Pankaj Kumar
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Contributions

Conceptualization contributed by P.K, N.K.D, T.V.T. and H.V.T.M; methodology contributed by P.K, N.K.D, T.V.T. and H.V.T.M; data analysis contributed by N.V.T, P.C.N. and H.V.T.M; data curation contributed by N.V.T. and H.V.T.M; writing—original draft preparation contributed by P.K, N.K.D, T.V.T., P.C.N, N.T.T, K.L. and H.V.T.M; writing—review and editing contributed by P.K, N.K.D, K.L. and H.V.T.M; Authorship must be limited to those who have contributed substantially to the work reported.

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Correspondence to Huynh Vuong Thu Minh.

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Appendix A

Appendix A

See Appendix Figs. 9, 10, and 11.

Fig. 9
figure 9

The high correlation between RDI 9-month Binh Dai with 6-month time lag SDI 9-month at Tan Chau (a) and at My Thanh (b)

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Fig. 10
figure 10

Pearson correlation coefficients between indices for 3–12 months and SDI' at Tan Chau (a, b) and Chau Doc (c, d) with SPI Ben Tre City

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Fig. 11
figure 11

RDI 12-month at seven sites in Ben Tre and SDI 12-month correlation at Tan Chau (a) and My Thuan (b)

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Minh, H.V.T., Kumar, P., Van Toan, N. et al. Deciphering the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought in Ben Tre province, Vietnam. Nat Hazards 120, 5869–5894 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06437-z

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