Abstract
The temporal distribution of earthquakes provides important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. The relatively limited records of strong earthquakes have often made it difficult to study the temporal distribution models of regional strong earthquakes. However, there are hundreds of years of complete strong earthquake records in the North China Seismic Zone, providing abundant basic data for studying temporal distribution models. Using the data of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in North China as inputs, this paper estimates the model parameters using the maximum likelihood method with Poisson, Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and Brownian passage time (BPT) distributions as target models. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes is determined according to Akaike information criterion (AIC),and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (K–S test). The results show that Lognormal and BPT models perform better in describing the temporal distribution of strong earthquakes in North China. The mean recurrence periods of strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.5) calculated based on these two models are 8.1 years and 13.2 years, respectively. In addition, we used the likelihood profile method to estimate the uncertainty of model parameters. For the BPT model, the mean and 95% confidence interval of recurrence interval μ is 13.2 (8.9–19.1) years, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of α is 1.29 (1.0–1.78). For the Lognormal model, the mean value and 95% confidence interval of v is 2.09 (1.68–2.49), the mean value exp (v) corresponding to earthquake recurrence interval is 8.1 (5.4–12.1) years. In this study, we also calculated the occurrence probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in the North China Seismic Zone in the future, and found that the probability and 95% confidence interval in the next 10 years based on the BPT model is 35.3% (26.8%-44.9%); the mean value and 95% confidence interval of earthquake occurrence probability based on the Lognormal distribution is 35.4% (22.9%-49.7%); the mean probability and 95% confidence interval based on the Poisson model is 53.1% (41.1%-64%). The results of this study may provide important reference for temporal distribution model selection and earthquake recurrence period calculation in future seismic hazard analysis in North China.
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Data availability
The China earthquake catalogs used in this study were obtained from the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) (http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/wdc4seis@bj/intro/cenc/intro.jsp, last accessed December 2021) and the China Seismograph Network (CSN) (http:// www.csndmc.ac.cn/wdc4seis@bj/earthquakes/csn_catalog _p001.jsp, last accessed December 2021).
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The authors thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.
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This study was supported in part by the Special Fund of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (Grant Number DQJB22Z03).
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XW is responsible for the idea and the writing of this manuscript. WJ is responsible for the data analysis of this study. GM provides theoretical guidance for this manuscript.
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Xu, W., Wu, J. & Gao, M. Temporal distribution model and occurrence probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in North China Seismic Zone. Nat Hazards 119, 125–141 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06124-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06124-5