Abstract
A high-resolution, summit-to-sea unstructured-grid model was used to simulate two compound flooding events in different geomorphic settings in Japan: the July 2012 flood in Kumamoto city and July 2018 flood in Okayama City, both caused by a torrential rainfall during seasonal Meiyu front but otherwise exhibiting quite different compound flood characteristics. The model shows good performance in simulating flooding extent; e.g., the Hit Rate for the inundation event in 2018 exceeds 0.9. Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine the roles/significance of levee structures along major rivers in coastal regions. Our results indicate that riverine and oceanic factors as well as levees significantly contribute to the observed flooding extents, and we are able to quantify the contributions from each factor at different locations. The model has been implemented operationally as the first nationwide 3-day compound flooding forecast system for Japan.
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Funding
This work was funded by One Concern Inc. Some simulations used in this paper were conducted using the following computational facilities: (1) William & Mary Research Computing for providing computational resources and/or technical support (URL: https://www.wm.edu/it/rc) (2) The Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by National Science Foundation grant number OCI-1053575; (3) Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC), The University of Texas at Austin (for providing HPC resources that have contributed to the research results reported within this paper.
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All authors contributed to this study’s conception and design. Model simulation were designed by Y. Joseph Zhang, Wei Huang, and Zhuo Liu. Material preparation, data collection were performed by the Once Concern Inc team including Zhuo Liu, Yi Liu, Sam Lamont, Yu Zhang, Feyera Hirpa, Ting Li, Brett Baker, Wang Zhan, and Shabaz Patel. Data used for SCHISM modeling were prepared by Y. Joseph Zhang, Wei Huang, and Hao-Cheng Yu. Text has been revised and modified by Y. Joseph Zhang, Zhuo Liu, and Nobuhito Mori. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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I, Wei Huang, hereby, consciously assure that for the manuscript, Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model, the following is fulfilled: This manuscript is not submitted to more than one journal for simultaneous consideration, the submitted work is original and has not been published elsewhere in any form or language (partially or in full), the study is not split up into several parts to increase the quantity of submissions and is not submitted to various journals or the one journal over time, results are presented clearly, honestly, and without fabrication, falsification or inappropriate data manipulation, all authors adhere to discipline-specific rules for acquiring, selecting and processing data, and no data, text, or theories by others are presented as if they were the authors’ own. Proper acknowledgements to other works are given, summarized and paraphrased, quotation marks are used for verbatim copying of material, and permissions are secured for material that is copyrighted.
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Appendix: tidal validation
Appendix: tidal validation
The coastal SCHISM model was validated at 33 major JMA tidal gauges in 2017 (Fig. 9). Time series of water level at these 33 stations are shown in Fig. 10.
Locations of 33 stations used for validation
Comparison of time series for 33 stations
The average correlation is 0.97,veraged R2 value is 0.95, and average mean absolute error (MAE) is 7.4 cm, which is much smaller than the typical tidal range of ~ 1–4 m in Japan (Fig. 10). The observational data used for model validation is the tide data obtained from Japan Oceanographic Data Center (JODC, https://jdoss1.jodc.go.jp/vpage/tide.html). Comparisons at the nearest stations of Kumamoto city (Fig.
Comparison of time series for sites near Kumamoto city (site 6) and near Okayama city (site 19). Subplots a) and b) are locations of site 6 and site 19, respectively, subplots c) and d) are time series at site 6 and site 19, respectively
11a) and Okayama city (Fig. 11b) are shown in Fig. 11c and d, respectively. MAE and RMSE are listed in Table 2.
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Huang, W., Zhang, Y.J., Liu, Z. et al. Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model. Nat Hazards 117, 2693–2713 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05962-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05962-7