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Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan

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Abstract

This study evaluates various climate scenarios on flooding by identifying future streamflow, flow change and floodplain flows regarding future greenhouse gas emissions. Various general circulation models (GCMs) were utilized to create historical (1986–2014) and future (2022–2100) scenarios to assess the risk of flooding due to changes in flow under future climatic conditions using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The delta correction (DC) method was used to correct biases in the CMIP6 data to reduce uncertainty. Based on precise multimodal coupling data, different statistical distributions such as the generalized extreme value (GEV), Log-Pearson’s Type III, and Gumbel distribution were used to assess the flood return period for various climate conditions. The delta change method (DCM) was utilized to estimate future peak flows, where the delta change factor (DCF) assisted in estimating different design flood events. SSP 3-7.0 had the highest projected streamflow out of all the projections along with final processing results from Hec-GeoRAS which was processed into HEC-RAS model to generate flood hazard maps and flood inundation maps. The future flow was then used to estimate and project the future floods flow. The results from the calibration and validation revealed good simulation of the river Chenab streamflow values of HEC-RAS. The results indicate that flood inundation extent will increase in the future, suggesting a higher flood hazard. This study emphasizes the significance of projecting future flood hazards and using predicted climate data to obtain crucial evidence for developing effective floodplain management strategies.

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Data availability

Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data were acquired from Alaska from Satellite Facility (ASF) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) https://search.asf.alaska.edu/#/?dataset=ALOS. Landsat satellite data were acquired from https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/, whereas CMIP6 data were acquired from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Daily discharge data were acquired from Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Pakistan and cannot be shared publicly.

Code availability

All the analysis was carried out using GUI-based QGIS and GrADS to extract, manipulate and visualizations of the data.

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Acknowledgements

We are very thankful to the US Geological Survey (USGS) EROS data center, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) and World Climate Research Program (WCRP) institutions for providing data.

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Applied Geo-Informatics Research Lab, Department of Meteorology, COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Park Road, Chak Shahzad, Islamabad, 45550, Pakistan

    Syeda Nadia Kiran, Muhammad Farooq Iqbal & Irfan Mahmood

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  1. Syeda Nadia Kiran
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  2. Muhammad Farooq Iqbal
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  3. Irfan Mahmood
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation was done by SNK, MFI and IM, whereas data collection was carried out by SNK and MFI. Analysis of the study are carried out by SNK, MFI and IM. The first draft of the manuscript was written by SNK and MFI. The manuscript was revised by SNK, MFI and IM. All authors contributed to the final version of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Muhammad Farooq Iqbal.

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Kiran, S.N., Iqbal, M.F. & Mahmood, I. Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 117, 1005–1033 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05892-4

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