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Natural hazards and disasters around the Caspian Sea

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Abstract

At a time, when the five riparian countries have renewed consultation with each other about the future of the Caspian Sea, it is appropriate to propose a state of the art of the potential natural threats to the regional environment. We present a critical review of geological, meteorological–climatological and hydrological hazards and disasters illustrated by many examples from within the Caspian drainage basin. Our work is set in the frame of an analysis of the factors contributing to the scale of the disasters. A brief overview of the mitigation measures in place and their future development is also included underlining the current limited warning systems (especially transboundary) despite improvements. While analysing past disasters is an essential source of information on which to base new mitigation, current and future conditions have poor or even no analogue in the past. Even though it clearly turns out that earthquakes are certainly the most deadly hazard, Caspian Sea level changes are by far causing the largest economical impact and affect the largest area and thus population. This review has also highlighted the need to create a Caspian database of natural hazards and disasters.

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 4

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 5

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 6

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 7

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 8

(Source: archive of the Institute of Geology, Dagestan Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Courtesy of I. Idrisov). Lower Photo. A collapse along the Gimry—Buinaksk road (Dagestan) on 26 May 2021. (Source: courtesy of Sh. Muduev)

Fig. 9
Fig. 10

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 11

(Source: Meteo 2021). Wind: strong wind > 20 m/s. Rain: heavy rain, rainfall greater than or equal to 50 mm in the past 12 h. Glaze (freezing rain): a coating of clear and smooth ice, formed on exposed surfaces by the freezing of supercooled drops of rain, drizzle, fog. Glaze breaks tree branches, tears wires, can bring down suspension bridge structures and is one of the most hazardous types of winter precipitation. Heat: heatwave, the maximum air temperature reaches or exceeds the dangerous value established for the given territory (> 30 °C). Drought: during the growing season of agricultural crops, the absence of effective precipitation (more than 5 mm per day) for a period of at least 30 consecutive days at a maximum air temperature above 30 °C

Fig. 12

(Source: courtesy of D. Kravchenko)

Fig. 13

(Source: R. Gracheva)

Fig. 14

(Source: S.A.G. Leroy)

Fig. 15

(Source: Meteo 2021). The area between Chechnya and North Ossetia, i.e. Ingushetia, is unfilled because of insufficient data. List of events in the caption to Fig. 11

Fig. 16

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Notes

  1. A list of settlements of the Russian Federation located in seismically active zones characterized by seismic intensity 6 or more points on the MSK-64 scale for average ground conditions and three levels of seismic hazard (probabilities of exceeding the calculated intensity for 50 years, equal to 10, 5, 1% for OSR-2016-A, OSR-2016-B, OSR-2016-C cards, respectively) can be found on http://seismos-u.ifz.ru/personal/localities.htm.

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Acknowledgements

Some sections related to the North-West Caspian were prepared under a grant from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant agreement no. 075-15-2020-928). We are grateful to V. Vinogradova (IGRAS, Russia) for help in collecting weather data. G. Aslan (BRGM, France) has kindly provided Figure 9. Our gratitude is going to K. Arpe and M. Eglème who commented constructively the manuscript before submission. We are grateful to the reviewers for their constructive comments.

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  1. Mediterranean Laboratory of Prehistory Europa-Africa, Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Minist Culture, LAMPEA, UMR 7269, 5 rue du Château de l’Horloge, 13094, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Suzanne A. G. Leroy

  2. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GP, UK

    Suzanne A. G. Leroy

  3. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Raisa Gracheva & Andrei Medvedev

  4. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    Raisa Gracheva

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Leroy, S.A.G., Gracheva, R. & Medvedev, A. Natural hazards and disasters around the Caspian Sea. Nat Hazards 114, 2435–2478 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05522-5

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