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Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models

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Abstract

Product of Bowen ratio with the sum of precipitation rate and evaporation rate has been used as proxy to evaluate the seasonal and annual spatial distributions of lightning flash rate over South/Southeast Asian region (60–120° E, 0–40° N) with 9 models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The model-simulated mean LFR with each model is positively correlated with the satellite-observed LFR on both seasonal and annual scales. The satellite-observed LFR is correlated with the ensemble mean LFR of the models with a correlation coefficient of 0.93 over the region. The model-simulated LFR has also been used for projection of lightning in the late twenty-first century. Overall, the projected LFR over whole study area shows a 6.75% increase during the (2079–2088) period in high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5) as compared to the historic period of (1996–2005). Rise in LFR is also identified using another projected period (2051–2060) and a lower radiative forcing scenario condition (RCP4.5), though lesser in magnitude, as expected. For the projected period (2051–60) in the RCP8.5 case, LFR over the domain shows an increase of 4.3%; whereas for a lower future scenario condition (RCP4.5), it indicates a rise by 5.36% at the end of the twenty-first century. Moreover, results indicate an increase in extreme events of severe convective storms with intense lightning in mountainous dry regions at the end of the twenty-first century. It is suggested that the proxy used here is favourable for projection of LFR in this region and perhaps for the whole tropical area.

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Acknowledgements

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, is funded by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India. Authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (their respective models are listed in Table 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. The authors are thankful to NASA and ECMWF for providing the LIS-OTD data through their websites https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/lightning/data/data_lis_otd-climatology and https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/. AKK acknowledges Indian National Science Academy for the support under INSA Emeritus Scientist Programme. Authors are thankful to learned referees for their remarks and suggestions.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Ministry of Earth Science, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    Sagarika Chandra, Praveen Kumar, Devendraa Siingh, N. Jeni Victor & A. K. Kamra

  2. University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E6BT, UK

    I. Roy

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  1. Sagarika Chandra
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Contributions

SC, DS and AKK are responsible for inception and, execution of project and preparation of the draft of the manuscript. SC and PK analyzed and simulate the CMIP5 data and prepared the final figures. IR contributes towards the CMIP5 model for the projection of LFR. SC, DS and JV contributed towards the analysis and interpretation of the study. AKK prepared final draft of manuscript. All authors contributed to the discussion of the results.

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Correspondence to Devendraa Siingh.

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Chandra, S., Kumar, P., Siingh, D. et al. Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models. Nat Hazards 114, 57–75 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05379-8

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