Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Risk perception in Unión Juárez, Chiapas, Mexico

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The proximity to the Tacaná volcano, to the subduction zone between the Cocos and North America plates, to the Mexican coast, and to the active geologic Polochic-Motagua fault makes the population of Union Juarez (UJ), Chiapas, Mexico, exposed to many natural hazards including hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. We assessed the risk perception of UJ, and our findings indicate that the community has moderate level of risk perception according to the scale of the National Center for Disaster Prevention of Mexico. The UJ’s risk perception is mainly dependent on gender and religion because females unlike males in case of disasters and emergencies: (1) believe that it is necessary to improve their preparedness; (2) trust the local civil protection authorities; (3) would know how to respond; (4) would follow the established protocols; and (5) would not relocate. On the other hand, non-religious people know better the protocols to follow in the event of disasters than the religious population. Besides, the community of UJ reasonably perceives earthquakes and extreme rains as the main hazards that they are exposed to, while volcanic hazards are considered less important although the town is located very close to the Tacaná volcano that has been active during the last 30 years. The local population lacks of proper knowledge and resources to develop adequate disaster mitigation plans. Surprisingly, the work of the local civil protection is considered poor. Our results can be used for local authorities as a tool to strength the disaster prevention actions in UJ.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Source: 2010 Mexican Census of Population and Housing of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, INEGI): https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/buscador/default.html?q=Unión+Juárez#tabMCcollapse-Indicadores

Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig 7.

Sources 1Servicio Sismológico Nacional (Mexican National Seismological Service. http://www2.ssn.unam.mx:8080/catalogo/: 2Macías et al. (2015); 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales y Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (2013); 4Diario Oficial de la Federación. (2007); 5Diario Oficial de la Federación. (2008); 6Diario Oficial de la Federación (2014)

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Azuela A (1995) Vivienda y Propiedad privada. Orden Jurídico y Espacio Urbano. Revista Mexicana de Sociología 57:35–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barberi F, Davis MS, Isaia R, Nave R, Ricci T (2008) Volcanic risk perception in the vesuvius population. J Volcan Geotherm Res 172:224–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bird DK (2009) The use of questionnaires for acquiring information on public perception of natural hazards and risk mitigation: a review of current knowledge and practice. Nat Haz Earth Syst Sci 9:1307–1325. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1307-2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burton I, Kates R, White G (1978) The environment as Hazard. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Cashman KV, Cronin SJ (2008) Welcoming a monster to the world: myth, oral tradition and modern societal response to volcanic disasters. J Volcan Geotherm Res 176:407–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chester DK (2005) Theology and disaster studies: the need for dialogue. J Volcan and Geotherm Res 146:319–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diario Oficial de la Federación (2007) Declaratoria de emergencia por la ocurrencia de lluvias atípicas el día 10 de octubre de 2007, en municipios del Estado de Chiapas. https://sidof.segob.gob.mx/notas/5010224

  • Diario Oficial de la Federación (2008) Declaratoria de emergencia por la ocurrencia de lluvias atípicas los días 1 y 2 de junio de 2008, en 7 municipios del Estado de Chiapas. http://dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5044726&fecha=13/06/2008

  • Diario Oficial de la Federación (2014). Declaratoria de emergencia por la presencia de lluvia severa, ocurrida los días 1 y 2 de junio de 2014, en 41 municipios del Estado de Chiapas. https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5348063&fecha=11/06/2014

  • French DP, Sutton S, Kinmonth AL, Marteau TM (2006) Assessing perceptions of risks due to multiple hazards. J Risk Res 9:657–682

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaillard JC (2008) Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: the case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. J Volcan Geotherm Res 172:315–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galante R, Foa A (1986) An epidemiological study of psychic trauma and treatment effectiveness for children after a natural disaster. J Amer Acad Child and Adol Psych 25:357–363

    Google Scholar 

  • García-Arróliga N, Cambranis MR, Méndez-Estrada K (2006). Vulnerabilidad Social. En: Guía Básica para la Elaboración de Atlas Estatales y Municipales de Peligros y Riesgos. Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED), Mexico

  • Gregg CE, Houghton BF, Johnston DM, Paton D, Swanson DA (2003) The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes. Hawaii. J Volcan Geotherm Res 130:176–196

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzman-Speziale M, Meneses-Rocha J (2000) The North America-Caribbean plate boundary west of the Motagua-Polochic fault system: a fault jog in southeastern Mexico. J South Am Earth Sci 13:459–468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inc SPSS (1999) SPSS: Applications Guide. Prentice Hall, USA, p 412

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. U.K., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kastenbaum R (1974) Disaster, death and human ecology. Omega J Death Dying 5(1):65–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kellens W, Zaalberg R, Neutens T, Vanneuville W, De Maeyer P (2011) An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the belgian coast. Risk Anal 31:1055–1068. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01571.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Limón-Hernández CG (2005) Análisis de la percepción del riesgo en los volcanes Chichón y Tacaná, Chiapas. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Bachelor Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

  • Limón-Hernández C, Macías JL (2009) Volcanic hazards and risk perception at the ‘“Zoque”’ community of Chapultenango: El Chichón volcano, Chiapas. Mexico. Geofıs Int 48(1):113–132

    Google Scholar 

  • López-Vázquez E (2009) Risk perception and coping strategies for risk from Popocatépetl volcano Mexico. Geofis Int 48:133–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Macías JL, Arce JL, Layer PW, Saucedo R, Mora JC (2015) Eruptive History of the Tacaná Volcanic Complex. In: Scolamacchia T, Macías J (eds) Active Volcanoes of Chiapas (Mexico): El Chichón and Tacaná. Active Volcanoes of the World. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25890-9_6

  • Mendenhall W, Beaver RJ, Beaver BM (2005) Introduction to probability and statistics. Duxbury Press, Belmont

    Google Scholar 

  • McNeil P, Chapman S (2005) Research methods, 3rd edn. Routledge, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Messner F, Meyer V (2005) Flood damage, vulnerability and risk perception-challenges for flood damage research. UFZ-Diskussionspapiere, No, p 13

    Google Scholar 

  • Mileti DS, Bolton PA, Fernandez G, Updike RG (1991) The eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano, South America, November /3, 1985. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

  • Miller RG (1997) Beyond ANOVA: Basics of applied statistics. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, FL, p 1997

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Milne G (1977) Cyclone tracy: II. the effects on darwin children. Aust Psychol 12:55–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ming-Chou H, Daigee S, Shuyeu L, Yao C (2008) How do disaster characteristics influence risk perception? Soc Risk Anal. Int J 28(3):635–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01040.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman CJ (2002) Risk communication: a mental models approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Novelo-Casanova DA, Rodriguez-Vangort F (2015) Flood risk assessment. Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas Mexico. Geomat Nat Hazards Risk, Case study. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1089327

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Paek H-J (2014) Risk perceptions. In: Thompson T (ed) Encyclopedia of health communication, 3rd edn. Angeles Sage Publications, California, pp 1189–1191

    Google Scholar 

  • Paton D, Smith L, Daly M, Johnston D (2008) Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: individual and social perspectives. J Volcan Geotherm Res 172:179–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paton D, Smith L, Johnston DM (2000) Volcanic hazards: risk perception and preparedness. N. Z. J Psychol 29:86–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Perry RW, Lindell MK (2008) Volcanic risk perception and adjustment in a multi-hazard environment. J Geophys Res 172:170–178

    Google Scholar 

  • Pidgeon N (1992) The psychology of risk. D. Blockley. engineering safety, Maidenhead, McGraw-Hill, pp 167–185

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez VanGort F, Novelo Casanova D (2015) Volcanic risk perception in northern Chiapas México. Nat Haz 76:1281–1295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1549-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ponce-Pacheco A, Novelo-Casanova D (2018) Vulnerability and Risk in Valle de Chalco Solidaridad, Estado de México, México. Case Study: El Triunfo, Avandaro and San Isidro. Investigaciones Geográficas, Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

  • Rowe G, Wright G (2001) Differences in expert and lay judgments of risk: myth or reality. Risk Anal 21:341–356. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.212116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (2013) Programa de Manejo Reserva de la Biosfera Volcán Tacaná. Available in: https://simec.conanp.gob.mx/pdf_libro_pm/129_libro_pm.pdf

  • Siegrist M (2000) The influence of trust and perceptions of risks and benefits on the acceptance of gene technology. Risk Anal 20:195–203. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.202020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siegrist M, Earle CT, Gutscher H (2003) Test of a trust and confidence model in the applied context of electromagnetic field (EMF) risks. Risk Anal 23:705–716

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sjöberg L (1999) Political decisions and public risk perception. The third international public policy and social science conference, Oxford, St Catherine’s College

    Google Scholar 

  • Slovic P (1987) Perception of risk. Science 234:280–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slovic P (2000) The perception of risk. Earthscan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson DA (2008) Hawaiian oral tradition describes 4000 years of volcanic activity at Kilauea. J Volcan Geotherm Res 176:421–431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson M, Önkal-Atay D, Güvenç G (2003) A cognitive portrayal of risk perception in Turkey: some cross-national comparisons. Risk Manag 5:25–35. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8240162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tobin GA, Montz BE (1997) Natural hazards: explanation and integration. Guilford Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Tobin GA, Whiteford LM, Jones EC (2007) Murphy AD (2007) Chronic hazard: weighing risk against the effects of emergency evacuation from Popocatépetl. Mexico, Proc App Geog Conf

    Google Scholar 

  • Wallace M, Rabin A (1960) Temporal experience. Psychol Bull 57:213–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful review of this paper and providing helpful comments. We thank the local authorities and people of Unión Juárez for their support during our fieldworks. Data anonymization was part of this research by never asking personal information to participants in the survey. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. The National Autonomous University of Mexico under the “Program to Support Research Projects and Technology Innovation (UNAM; PAPIIT Project No. IN111217)” funded this research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Col. Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, 04510, Ciudad de México, México

    Ana B. Ponce-Pacheco

  2. Departamento de Sismología, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Col. Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, 04510, Ciudad de México, México

    David A. Novelo-Casanova

  3. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Col. Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, 04510, Ciudad de México, México

    Ivonne N. Agustin-Ortíz

  4. Facultad de Psicología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Col. Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, 04510, Ciudad de México, México

    Ana B. Garduño-González

Authors
  1. Ana B. Ponce-Pacheco
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. David A. Novelo-Casanova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ivonne N. Agustin-Ortíz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ana B. Garduño-González
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David A. Novelo-Casanova.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

The authors declare that they respected the autonomy of individuals in this research because of the following reasons: All personal data provided by participants are protected for confidentiality and anonymization. The interviewees cannot be identified directly or indirectly. Before the participants’ interview, they were provided with sufficient information about the purpose of the research for them to make an informed and conscientious decision as to whether to take part in the research or not. The participants were not subject to any form of coercion to take part of this research. The interviewees were aware that they were free to withdraw from the research at any time without giving a reason and without prejudice. The research was conducted with integrity and transparency.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ponce-Pacheco, A.B., Novelo-Casanova, D.A., Agustin-Ortíz, I.N. et al. Risk perception in Unión Juárez, Chiapas, Mexico. Nat Hazards 106, 855–879 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04494-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04494-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation