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Is Bangkok at risk of marine flooding? Evidence relating to the historical floods of AD 1785 and 1983

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Abstract

Thailand’s low-lying capital city Bangkok is a dense metropolis, one of Asia’s rapidly growing ‘megacities’, and home to over 10 million residents. Bangkok’s location on the sinking Chao Phraya Delta means it has a high susceptibility to river flooding. However, the possible contribution of marine incursion to river flooding is not as widely recognised and needs further consideration. We therefore re-examine the historically documented floods in AD 1785 and 1983. Available evidence suggests that the superposition of different flood behaviours was important during both events. Attention is drawn to the evidence for, and contributory roles played by, astronomical spring tides, meteorological tides, storm waves and possibly storm surge. These marine effects can exacerbate river floods caused by seasonal peak flows in the tidal lower Chao Phraya River during the early north-east monsoon. For future management of flood risk, it is therefore necessary to recognise that Bangkok has a compound flood-risk profile that includes both hydrometeorological and marine influences. The significance of marine influences on Bangkok’s flood risk is likely to increase in future with continuing eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence of the Chao Phraya Delta.

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Notes

  1. Years on the Buddhist Era calendar used in Thailand are 543 years ahead of the Gregorian calendar. The year BE 2328 is therefore equivalent to AD 1785 on the Gregorian calendar.

  2. The Dynastic Chronicles of the Bangkok Era, the First Reign, refers to the Thai Royal Chronicles, i.e. the history of the reign of Phutthayōtfā Čhulālōk, King of Siam, 1737–1809.

  3. Inferring the timing of high-energy wave (HEW) events from proxy ages of coral boulders emplaced on coastlines has limitations. Laboratory determination of the age of fossil corals using U-Th age-dating can give very precise results with small measurement errors (Table 2). However, challenges in the field with choosing the youngest parts of a coral boulder reduce the overall accuracy of the method (Terry and Etienne 2014).

  4. Tide levels and tidal discharges are not shown after 17 October 1983 by the authors.

  5. Note that in the 2011 Chao Phraya floods, the maximum flood extent was reached in the middle of November and that by the start of December the floodwaters had drained to the GoT. This rapid alleviation was most likely aided by the recession of the strong meteorological tides that had been present during the flood event.

  6. During the 2011 Bangkok floods, temporary flood barriers were erected that caused diversion of floodwaters away from the central business district towards less developed land to the south-east. This relieved flooding in downtown Bangkok but exacerbated flooding in the surrounding provinces.

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Acknowledgements

Mr Tanaprasert Techawong (Kai) is thanked for assistance at the National Archives of Thailand. Dr Praon Silapanth of the Department of Archaeology, Silpakorn University, kindly spared time to share information on the early history of Bangkok. The International Council for Science Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ICSU-ROAP) provided a discussion forum by hosting regular meetings of the Steering Group for Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk, from which this work benefitted. The authors are grateful to several anonymous reviewers who offered helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.

Funding

James Terry duly acknowledges research funding from Zayed University through Grant no. R19088.

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  1. College of Natural and Health Sciences, Zayed University, PO Box 19282, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

    James P. Terry

  2. CATRISX SERVICES LTD, Woking, UK

    Nigel Winspear

  3. PANGEA Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    James Goff

  4. School of Ocean and Earth Science, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK

    James Goff

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JPT carried out coastal fieldwork on Ko Larn Island and archive research at the National Archives of Thailand in Bangkok. All authors wrote various sections of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to James P. Terry.

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JPT declares that he is an Associate Editor of Natural Hazards. JG declares that he is an Editor-in-Chief of Natural Hazards. The authors declare that they have no other competing interests.

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Terry, J.P., Winspear, N. & Goff, J. Is Bangkok at risk of marine flooding? Evidence relating to the historical floods of AD 1785 and 1983. Nat Hazards 105, 1013–1030 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04347-4

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