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Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries

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Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TC-ENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided.

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Acknowledgements

The Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), the Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) international initiative and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provided support for the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria, Australia

    Yuriy Kuleshov, Paul Gregory, Andrew B. Watkins & Robert J. B. Fawcett

  2. Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Yuriy Kuleshov

  3. The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

    Yuriy Kuleshov

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  1. Yuriy Kuleshov
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  2. Paul Gregory
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  3. Andrew B. Watkins
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  4. Robert J. B. Fawcett
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Correspondence to Yuriy Kuleshov.

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Appendices

Appendix 1: List of ENSO years

El Niño 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015.

Neutral 1971, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2018. 2019.

La Niña 1970, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017.

Appendix 2: Tables

See Tables 6, 7 , 8 .

Table 6 List of severe TCs recorded in the SWIO (30E–90E) with LMCP 920 hPa or lower since 1981/82 season
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Table 7 List of severe TCs recorded in the AR (90E–160E) with LMCP 920 hPa or lower since 1981/82 season
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Table 8 List of severe TCs recorded in the SPO (west of 160E) with LMCP 920 hPa or lower since 1981/82 season
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Kuleshov, Y., Gregory, P., Watkins, A.B. et al. Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries. Nat Hazards 104, 1295–1313 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04214-2

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