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Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran

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Abstract

Drought is the most important threat to both environmental and socio-economic features of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world as it is closely associated with agricultural production losses, water supply shortage, and security. This study aims to regionalize extreme drought severity–duration (SD) index probability across Iran. The 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series were calculated for the studied stations and subsequently used to compute the annual extreme SD index. Applying a cluster analysis (CA) to the stations, SD index, the studied area was classified into four regions and their homogeneity was tested by the L-moment approach. Results indicated that the regions identified are homogeneous. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram the 2-parameter log-normal distribution was selected as the regional statistical distribution for all regions identified, by which the regional drought SD associated with different return periods was estimated. The spatial pattern of computed drought SD indicates that the eastern, northwestern and western parts of the country are exposed to very high drought severity in all return periods. As the return period is increasing, very high and severe droughts dominate larger areas, so that, for long return periods, approximately all the country would turn towards extreme and severe drought events even across regions possessing high annual precipitation amount.

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(adapted and modified from Espinosa et al. 2019))

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Acknowledgements

The support of this study by the Iran National Science Foundation under contract number 96001842 is highly acknowledged. The corresponding author would also like to appreciate Center of excellence on risk management and natural hazards, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran

    Mohammad Ghadami, Mohsen Amini & Reza Modarres

  2. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

    Tayeb Raziei

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  1. Mohammad Ghadami
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  2. Tayeb Raziei
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  3. Mohsen Amini
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  4. Reza Modarres
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Correspondence to Reza Modarres.

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Ghadami, M., Raziei, T., Amini, M. et al. Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran. Nat Hazards 103, 2813–2827 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04103-8

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