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Determining the initial stage loss content of tectonic coal gas desorption via the Bayesian probability method

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Abstract

Mine gas disaster prediction and prevention are based on gas content measurement, which results in initial stage loss when determining coal gas desorption contents in engineering applications. We propose a Bayesian probability statistical method in the coal gas desorption model on the basis of constrained prior information. First, we use a self-made coal sample gas desorption device to test initial stage gas desorption data of tectonic coal and undeformed coal. Second, we calculate the initial stage loss of different coal samples with the power exponential function parameters by using Bayesian probability statistics and least squares estimation. Results show that Bayesian probability statistics and least squares estimation can be used to obtain regression and desorption coefficients, thereby illustrating the Bayesian estimation method’s validity and reliability. Given that the Bayesian probability method can apply prior information to constrain the model’s posterior parameters, it provides results that are statistically significant in the initial stage loss of coal gas desorption by connecting observation data and prior information.

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Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41772375 and 41602175), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2015M572104), Foundation for University Key Teacher by Education Department of Henan Province—China (14A440009), Science and technology research of Henan Province (162102210231).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Resources and Environment, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, 454000, China

    Xiaobin Li, Yunbo Li & Junting Tang

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Coalbed Methane and Shale Gas for Central Plains Economic Region, Jiaozuo, 454000, China

    Xiaobin Li & Yunbo Li

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  1. Xiaobin Li
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  2. Yunbo Li
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  3. Junting Tang
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Correspondence to Xiaobin Li or Yunbo Li.

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Li, X., Li, Y. & Tang, J. Determining the initial stage loss content of tectonic coal gas desorption via the Bayesian probability method. Nat Hazards 97, 83–97 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03627-y

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