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Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

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Abstract

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast, ~ 3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake, ~ 20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at ~ 30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents < 1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.

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Abbreviations

DOGAMI:

Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries

CSZ:

Cascadia subduction zone

MHHW:

Mean higher high water

NOAA:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Acknowledgements

This project was funded under award #NA15NWS4670034 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. We thank Dr Paul Komar for his constructive comments on the manuscript and Dr. Arun Chawla for his assistance with developing the wave amplification nomogram. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their insightful reviews of the manuscript. Simulations used in this paper were conducted using the following computational facilities: (1) Sciclone at the College of William and Mary which was provided with assistance from the National Science Foundation, the Virginia Port Authority, Virginia’s Commonwealth Technology Research Fund, and the Office of Naval Research; (2) the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE; Grant TG-OCE130032), which is supported by National Science Foundation grant number OCI-1053575; and (3) NASA’s Pleiades.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, Coastal Field Office, Newport, OR, USA

    Jonathan C. Allan, George R. Priest & Laura L. Gabel

  2. Center for Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, USA

    Yinglong J. Zhang

Authors
  1. Jonathan C. Allan
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  2. George R. Priest
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  3. Yinglong J. Zhang
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  4. Laura L. Gabel
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Correspondence to Jonathan C. Allan.

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This paper summarizes efforts undertaken by the US State of Oregon to develop maritime tsunami evacuation zones.

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Allan, J.C., Priest, G.R., Zhang, Y.J. et al. Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon. Nat Hazards 94, 21–52 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3372-2

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