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Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone

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Abstract

To explore the local tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process, (2) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (3) use resulting vertical coseismic deformations for simulation of tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Maximum runup was 9–30 m (NAVD88) from earthquakes with slip of ~8–38 m and M w ~8.3–9.4. Minimum subduction zone slip consistent with three tsunami deposits was 14–15 m. By assigning variable weights to the source scenarios using a logic tree, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will not exceed the line. Ninety-nine percent of Cascadia tsunami variation is covered by runup ≤30 m and 90% ≤16 m with a “preferred” (highest weight) value of ~10 m. A hypothetical maximum-considered distant tsunami had runup of ~11 m, while the historical maximum was ~6.5 m.

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Abbreviations

DOGAMI:

Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries

TPSW:

Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group

CSZ:

Cascadia subduction zone

MHHW:

Mean higher high water

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Acknowledgments

This investigation was supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Requisition Number NRMAH000-6-01035 through Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) Intergovernmental Agreement number 61110-09192006, and support from the City of Cannon Beach, the Cannon Beach Rural Fire Protection District, and the Seaside School District through Intergovernmental Agreement 41180-63006. The Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of NOAA kindly provided earthquake source data for the two distant tsunami scenarios and cooperated at every stage of the investigation. Harvey Kelsey of Humboldt State University, Vasily Titov of NOAA and Eric Geist of the US Geological Survey provided key reviews of an early draft. Brian Atwater of the USGS reviewed a later draft and offered key advice on paleosubsidence data. The authors acknowledge Western Geco and the US Geological Survey for providing some of the seismic reflection data for the purpose of this research. Angie Venturato of NOAA produced the initial compilation of topographic and bathymetric data. Charles Seaton of the OGI School of Science and Engineering, Oregon Health & Science University provided key support with data reduction at all stages of the project. Ian Madin, Vicki McConnell and Don Lewis of DOGAMI provided helpful review and advice. We thank local stakeholders for their wise council and cooperation, particularly Al Aya and Cleve Rooper of the Cannon Beach Rural Fire Protection District, Richard Mays and Jay Raskin of the City of Cannon Beach, and Doug Dougherty, Superintendent of the Seaside School District.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Newport Coastal Field Office, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, Newport, OR, USA

    George R. Priest & Robert C. Witter

  2. Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Chris Goldfinger

  3. Geological Survey of Canada, Pacific Geoscience Centre, Sidney, BC, Canada

    Kelin Wang

  4. OGI School of Science and Engineering, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA

    Yinglong Zhang & António M. Baptista

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  1. George R. Priest
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Correspondence to George R. Priest.

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Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Wang, K. et al. Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Nat Hazards 54, 27–73 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9453-5

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