Multi-hazard model for developing countries

Abstract

Disaster risk assessment related to natural events has generally been carried out separately by specialists in each area of earth sciences, which has two negative consequences: Firstly, results of investigations are presented in different formats, mainly maps, which differ significantly from each other in aspects such as scale, symbols and units; secondly, it is common for an area or territory to contain several hazards that can potentially interact with each other, generating cascade effects or synergies. While some authors have proposed a multi-hazard analysis framework based on the use of probabilities, the quality and quantity of data required for this approach are rarely available in developing countries. Qualitative methods, on the other hand, have traditionally been limited to overlapping maps, without considering possible spatial interactions. Given the importance of integrated assessment of natural hazards for land use planning and risk management, this article proposes a heuristic multi-hazard model appropriate for developing countries, based on a standardization of classifications and a spatial interaction matrix between hazards. The model can be adjusted to be applied at different scales and in different territories; to demonstrate its versatility, it is applied to the municipality of Poás, Costa Rica, a territory with multiple natural hazards.