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Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia

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Abstract

A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.

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Notes

  1. http://www.gestiondelriesgomanizales.com/.

  2. Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

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Acknowledgements

This work was developed within the framework of the inter-institutional agreement between the Universidad Nacional de Colombia at Manizales, and the Corporación Autónoma Regional de Caldas (Corpocaldas), the regional environmental authority, to improve information systems for risk knowledge and understanding; monitoring of hazard events and warning systems; mainstreaming risk into planning, and improve risk awareness in the city of Manizales, Colombia. The authors are grateful with the administrative and technical personnel of Aguas the Manizales for providing the required data for the development of the exposure databases and for their valuable contributions in different stages of the risk assessment. We also want to thank three anonymous reviewers whose comments allowed us to improve the original version of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain

    Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez

  2. INGENIAR Ltda., Bogotá D.C., Colombia

    Daniela Zuloaga & Gabriel A. Bernal

  3. Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales, Manizales, Colombia

    Sebastian Henao

  4. Instituto de Estudios Ambientales (IDEA), Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales, Manizales, Colombia

    Omar-Darío Cardona

Authors
  1. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez
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  2. Daniela Zuloaga
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  3. Sebastian Henao
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  4. Gabriel A. Bernal
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  5. Omar-Darío Cardona
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Correspondence to Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez.

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Salgado-Gálvez, M.A., Zuloaga, D., Henao, S. et al. Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia. Nat Hazards 93 (Suppl 1), 5–24 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2987-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2987-z

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