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Impact indicators for caprock integrity and induced seismicity in CO2 geosequestration: insights from uncertainty analyses

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Abstract

The geological sequestration (geosequestration) of carbon dioxide (CO2) is a mitigation method for reducing greenhouse gas emission into the atmosphere. The security and safety of CO2 geosequestration are strongly dependent on the mechanical stability of the caprock overlying the reservoir. Underground injection of CO2 increases the pore pressure and thus decreases the effective stress. It may lead to caprock failure, as well as the subsequent leakage of sequestered CO2. In particular, geothermal exploitation and the underground disposal of hazardous liquid wastes have demonstrated a risk of induced seismicity. We performed an uncertainty analysis using a novel response surface methodology and a two-step statistical experimental design, evaluated the statistical significance of operator choices and subsurface uncertainties to caprock integrity, and quantified the moment magnitude of the induced seismicity. Furthermore, the optimal combination (i.e., the worst-case scenario) with the desired properties was forecast. A series of numerical experiments was well designed, and 130 combinations were statistically determined. Based on the results from the analysis of variance for the response surface quadratic model, the impact indicators were presented in histograms according to their significances to the Coulomb failure stress and moment magnitude of the induced seismicity. Lastly, the values of the selected independent impact indicators were predicted to obtain optimal compositions for object function of both Coulomb failure stress and moment magnitude, and the desired properties were being picked out. The optimal combinations had desirability values of 1.000, demonstrating the fitness of the selected statistical models in analyzing the experimental data.

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Acknowledgments

This work was mainly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant No. 41274111. We would also like to thank the financial support provided by the National Department Public Benefit Research Foundation of MLR, China (Grant No. 201211063-4-1), and the China National Key Technology R&D Program (Grant No. 2012BAC24B05).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071, China

    Xiaochen Wei, Qi Li, Xiaying Li & Yankun Sun

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  1. Xiaochen Wei
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  2. Qi Li
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Correspondence to Qi Li.

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Wei, X., Li, Q., Li, X. et al. Impact indicators for caprock integrity and induced seismicity in CO2 geosequestration: insights from uncertainty analyses. Nat Hazards 81, 1–21 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2063-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2063-5

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