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Spatial variation of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai and surrounding region

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Abstract

Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.

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Abbreviations

PHA:

Peak horizontal acceleration

S a :

Spectral acceleration

g :

Gravitational acceleration (9.81 m/s2)

M w :

Earthquake moment magnitude

UHRS:

Uniform hazard response spectrum

λ Mw :

Mean annual rate of exceedance

a, b :

Gutenberg–Richter earthquake recurrence parameters

M 0 :

Threshold moment magnitude

N (M 0):

Frequency of earthquake occurrence of M w ≥ M 0

β :

A coefficient (=2.303b)

N i (M 0):

Weighing function for ith fault

M u :

Maximum potential earthquake magnitude assigned to fault

α i :

Fault-weighing factor for length of ith fault

x i :

Fault-weighting factor for number of earthquakes pertaining to ith fault

DBE:

Design basis earthquake

MCE:

Maximum considered earthquake

A h :

Design horizontal seismic acceleration coefficient

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India

    Sarika S. Desai & Deepankar Choudhury

  2. Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, AcSIR, New Delhi, India

    Deepankar Choudhury

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  1. Sarika S. Desai
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  2. Deepankar Choudhury
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Correspondence to Deepankar Choudhury.

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Desai, S.S., Choudhury, D. Spatial variation of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai and surrounding region. Nat Hazards 71, 1873–1898 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0984-4

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