Abstract
Southeast Asian countries suffer from severe coastal hazards each year. A large number of these countries are incurring consequential costs that impact their national economies. It is crucial, therefore, to analyze the impact of such hazards on their economic development and provide a solid basis for future development strategies. The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the economic development and the losses from coastal disasters, and to identify both the impact of hazards on the development, as well as the function of such development on the resilience to hazards. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is employed to build the assessment models. Data from 1995 to 2005 from eight Southeast countries are analyzed using the DEA models. A set of “resilience index” of these countries are concluded from the results. It is found that the economic development does not contribute to the strengthening of national resilience to coastal hazards. Inappropriate development could even impair the resilience. Additionally, the resilience to coastal hazards is impacted by various factors such as the allocation of resources and external assistance. From the analysis, a clear image is gained of the interaction between economic development and coastal hazards, which provides a basis for future development strategies.
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Notes
According to the definitions from EM-DAT and UNISDR, the coastal hazard includes: typhoon, tsunamis, tidal waves, storms, wave surges, and floods aroused by these hazards.
According to the term definitions of EM-DAT, total affected people include those people that have been injured, affected, and left homeless after a disaster. The affected people are those requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency, i.e., requiring basic survival needs such as food, water, shelter, sanitation, and immediate medical assistance. Persons confirmed as dead and persons missing and presumed dead are both counted as deaths. Estimated damage is the economic impact of a disaster usually consists of direct (e.g., damage to infrastructure, crops, and housing) and indirect (e.g., loss of revenues, unemployment, and market destabilization) consequences on the local economy.
According to the characteristics of economic development and impact from coastal hazards, it is reasonable to assume that the indicators of selected countries share the same characteristics. It is accordant with the requirement to DMUs of DEA method.
The method adapted to complete the factor analysis is main component analysis. Because the component analysis allows no missing data, in the pre-processing the missing data are substituted by data from a previous year. Also, to ensure that the data are independent, and to make the number of indicators as small as possible, the varimax rotation is used in the factor analysis.
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Acknowledgements
Financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under the grant Nos. 70425001 and 70733005, and the National Key Projects from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (grants 2006-BAB08B01), is gratefully acknowledged. We also would like to thank Professor T. S. Murty and the anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions and corrections on the earlier draft of our paper according to which we improved the content.
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Zou, LL., Wei, YM. Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia. Nat Hazards 48, 167–189 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9256-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9256-0