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Provincial evaluation of vulnerability to geological disaster in China and its influencing factors: a three-stage DEA-based analysis

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Abstract

China is a country with frequent natural disasters. In order to prevent the losses caused by disaster, this paper plans to make evaluation on vulnerability to geological disaster in 31 provinces in China based on overcoming the disadvantages of traditional data envelopment analysis evaluation methods. The research selected some relevant indexes in China from 2004 to 2010, including the frequency of geological disasters, GDP, population density, personal injury and property loss so as to analyze vulnerability to geological disaster in each province (municipality), and it found that geological vulnerability in China presented an overall pattern of East China < Central China < West China. In addition, it found from the analysis of the influencing factors of vulnerability that industrial development and scientific and technological advancement could reduce vulnerability to geological disasters significantly, while the growth in per-capita GDP and mean sea level could increase vulnerability to geological disasters to a certain extent. Meanwhile, the research indicated that the investment in the prevention and control of geological disasters in China did not have significant effects on the whole vulnerability to geological disasters.

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Acknowledgments

This research is funded by Humanities and Social Science Planning Fund Program of The Ministry of Education (Program Number: 11YC630061).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China

    Mingze Li

  2. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China

    Jun Lv, Xin Chen & Nan Jiang

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  1. Mingze Li
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  2. Jun Lv
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  3. Xin Chen
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  4. Nan Jiang
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Correspondence to Jun Lv.

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Li, M., Lv, J., Chen, X. et al. Provincial evaluation of vulnerability to geological disaster in China and its influencing factors: a three-stage DEA-based analysis. Nat Hazards 79, 1649–1662 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1917-1

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