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A Novel Combination of Tree-Based Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation for Assessing Risk Levels of Flyrock Induced by Mine Blasting

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop and introduce novel techniques for predicting and simulating the flyrock phenomenon that happens in mines due to blasting. Two tree-based techniques, genetic programming (GP) and random forest (RF), were developed and applied to predict flyrock distance. Identification and measurements of important parameters affecting flyrock were done in six different quarry sites in Malaysia. An extensive database was established and used to conduct various parametric studies for both GP and RF models to obtain the best models. The performance prediction of the best GP and RF models were evaluated using several performance indices and the GP model could provide higher capacity in predicting flyrock distance. Afterward, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was used with the developed GP equation to analyze the flyrock risk in the studied sites. The MCS results showed that only 10% of the flyrock events will exceed 290 m. This proved that the blast safety area can be identified clearly for the blasting operations in the studied sites using MCS. It is important to note that the developed GP, RF and MCS models can be implemented in other relevant blasting environmental issues.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen, 361024, Fujian Province, China

    Jinbi Ye

  2. Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, 15914, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammadreza Koopialipoor

  3. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, China

    Jian Zhou

  4. Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, 550000, Vietnam

    Danial Jahed Armaghani

  5. Yarui Architectural Design Co., LTD. Xiamen Branch, Wuyuanwan Operation Center, 601 Sishui Road, Huli District, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China

    Xiaoli He

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Ye, J., Koopialipoor, M., Zhou, J. et al. A Novel Combination of Tree-Based Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation for Assessing Risk Levels of Flyrock Induced by Mine Blasting. Nat Resour Res 30, 225–243 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-020-09730-3

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