Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

Land-use policies are a key determinant of stakeholders’ land-use decisions. Stakeholders respond differently to land-use policies in an effort to maximise the benefits they receive from certain land use (Brooks et al. 2014; Nelson et al. 2009; van Noordwijk et al. 2011). Their decision making is mainly influenced by their income expectations that are defined based on their knowledge and social networks (Berkes et al. 2000; Rogers 2004; Turnpenny et al. 2014). As shown in our simulations, forest moratorium policies in Indonesia influence stakeholders and their land-use decisions. However, we found that extending the period of the forest moratorium in its current form has little effect on land-use change in West Kotawaringin district due to the high-income expectations (from oil palm) of households and private companies. Extending the period of the moratorium only stops private companies from converting peat forests to oil palm but not households, since this regulation only applies to companies. High-income expectations for oil palm profitability have increased the households’ interest in expanding the oil palm area, including on peatland. Meanwhile, private companies tend to expand their oil palm plantations in degraded forest on mineral soil, since the regulations of the forest moratorium only apply to peat and natural forest. Moreover, it is often unclear if forests can be considered natural or degraded and government officials may not always have strong incentives to carry out a strict interpretation of the moratorium (Sloan 2014). Hence, the moratorium in the way it is currently implemented is not sufficiently effective to ensure a strong decline in forest loss (Margono et al. 2014) and to subsequently reduce potential CO₂ emissions (Busch et al. 2015).

In Kapuas district, the lower population density and low expectations for oil palm performance have resulted in more stable land-use conditions. This result supports the empirical findings of Tachibana (2016) who highlighted population and expected income as the main drivers of land-use and land-cover change.

In our MPL scenario, we assumed that economic incentives for farmers/households were provided through premium prices for NTFPs, agroforestry rubber and community timber. We also assumed that the local government provides subsidies for producing these provisioning services through tax reductions. Based on these assumptions, our simulations show a greater increase in forest, agroforestry rubber and community timber plantation areas in West Kotawaringin and Kapuas districts, compared with the other two scenarios. The premium prices for NTFPs, agroforestry rubber and community timber have shifted the expectations of the households and changed their land-use decisions. Households tend to conserve more forest and agroforest areas that indirectly reduce potential CO₂ from land-use change. This result supports other studies that found positive ecological effects when land-use scenarios that give priority to conservation and livelihoods were implemented (Mulia et al. 2013; Sunderland et al. 2008). However, premium prices did not change the expectations of the private companies concerning oil palm plantations, timber plantations and logging concessions.

Terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests or managed agricultural lands, are subject to multiple natural processes and human interventions that have major effects on global climate (Carreño et al. 2012; Foley et al. 2005; Le et al. 2010). Reducing green house gas emissions and increasing CO₂ sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems represents an important short-term option for mitigating global climate change. However, an array of policies to govern land-use changes is needed to achieve this. Considering the integration of climate change, sustainable development and poverty reduction, flagged in the Paris agreement, the implementation of such policies at the national level should articulate the integration of local livelihood programmes in a country’s strategic approaches (UNFCCC 2015a).

A wide scope of forest moratorium policies was part of the preparations for Indonesia’s INDCs to combat climate change and its impact on humans and ecosystems (Murniningtyas et al. 2015). Forest moratorium policies have recently been extended until 2016 and cover the suspension of permits for converting peat and secondary forests. However, the policy has yet to include a livelihood programme, as required in the Paris agreement. Considering local people as important stakeholders who may contribute to land-use change and global emissions, sustainable local livelihoods are important drivers of land use (Medrilzam et al. 2014; Sunderland et al. 2008; Tachibana 2016; van Noordwijk et al. 2008). As shown in our simulations, the option of including livelihood programmes in the MPL scenario could significantly decrease the rate of forest conversion in the two districts and indirectly reduce potential CO₂ emissions. We also found that the model clearly depicts the multi-faceted nature of economic incentives in decelerating land-use change and restoring ecosystem benefits. The option of providing premium prices and cost subsidies for NTFP and permanent agroforestry production could increase potential local benefits. Equally, this scenario shows that premium prices (15 % higher than local prices) and cost subsidies (covering 5 % of production costs) have increased the benefits from NTFP and permanent agroforestry production to the level of benefits received from oil palm. This reduces local interest in converting forests and agroforests to oil palm and thus reduces local carbon emissions. These results support previous findings that the implementation of a conservation scenario will only work with a supporting programme that can promote ecosystem services as a viable livelihood option (Börner et al. 2011; McShane et al. 2011; Wunder 2013). The role of economic incentives in supporting the effectiveness of an environmental programme has also been shown by Kemkes et al. (2010), McCann (2013) and van Noordwijk et al. (2014).

The combination of conservation and livelihood programmes under the forest moratorium policy in West Kotawaringin and Kapuas districts could be achieved if traditional practices of tapping jelutong and agroforestry rubber were encouraged. These activities will potentially support local livelihoods that have had long experience and tradition in jelutong and agroforestry rubber tapping. From an ecological perspective, this option could potentially conserve and restore peat forest ecosystems and reduce emissions from LULUCF.

Considering Indonesia’s commitment to reduce emissions from LULUCF, the results of the LUCES model could provide an essential input for decision makers to develop additional programmes to improve the effectiveness of forest moratorium policies in decelerating land-use change and reducing CO₂ emissions. The LUCES model, developed at the district level, could be scaled up to assess the implementation of forest moratorium policies nationally. Moreover, it could support national governments in evaluating and improving their strategies to mitigate global climate change as formulated in their INDCs.