Abstract
This paper refines the spatial resolution and spillover effects of a micro-econometric analysis of adaptation of agricultural portfolios to climate change using the Global Positioning System (GPS). From the household surveys collected across South America by the World Bank, the GPS recordings of exact farm locations such as latitude, longitude, and altitude are matched with high resolution grid cell climate data from the Climate Research Unit as well as geographically referenced soils and geography data from the Food and Agriculture Organization. The choice of agricultural systems at the farm level is estimated using spatial Logit model and the conditional land value is estimated for each system of agriculture after correcting for selection bias and spatial spillovers. Future choices and land values are simulated using the fine resolution climate scenarios by the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) and GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies). This paper finds that, under the UKMO HadGEM1 (Hadley Center Global Environmental Model 1) scenario by around 2060, the choices of the specialized systems are expected to fall, but the mixed system would increase. The land value of the crops-only falls by 29 %, but the mixed system land value falls only by 12 %. Under a milder GISS ER (ModelE-R) scenario, the land value of the mixed system increases by 6 %. With full adaptations of agricultural systems, the expected land value falls by 17 %. Without adaptations, the damage increases. This paper demonstrates that adaptation behaviors can be best studied by a fine resolution micro-econometric analysis of agricultural portfolios using the GPS reference.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Regressions were run for the land values reported in Argentina (including Uruguay) and Brazil owing to the high quality of the reported data in terms of land markets, land used for crops and livestock, and research networks.
For A1 scenarios, refer to the previous study by Seo (2010b).
References
Adams R, Rosenzweig C, Peart RM, Ritchie JT, McCarl BA, Glyer JD, Curry RB, Jones JW, Boote KJ, Allen LH (1990) Global climate change and US agriculture. Nature 345:219–224
Adams RM, McCarl BA, Means LO (2003) Effects of spatial scale of climate scenarios on economic assessments: an example from the US agriculture. Clim Chang 60:131–148
Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytology 165:351–371
Andrews DK, Buchinsky M (2000) A three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions. Econometrica 68:23–51.
Anselin L (1988) Spatial econometrics: methods and models. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht
Auffhammer M, Ramaathan V, Vincent JR (2006) Integrated model shows that atmospheric brown clouds and greenhouse gases have reduced rice harvests in India. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103:19668–19672
Baethgen WE (1997) Vulnerability of agricultural sector of Latin America to climate change. Climate Res 9:1–7
Butt TA, McCarl BA, Angerer J, Dyke PT, Stuth JW (2005) The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali. Clim Chang 68:355–378
Case A (1992) Neighborhood influence and technological change. Reg Sci Urban Econ 22:491–508
Deschenes O, Greenstone M (2007) The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. Am Econ Rev 97:354–385
Driessen P, Deckers J, Nachtergaele F (2001) Lecture notes on the major soils of the world. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome
Dubin JA, McFadden DL (1984) An econometric analysis of residential electric appliance holdings and consumption. Econometrica 52(2):345–362
Easterling WE, Aggarwal PK, Batima P, Brander KM, Erda L, Howden SM, Kirilenko A, Morton J, Soussana J-F, Schmidhuber J, Tubiello FN (2007) In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Food, fibre and forest products. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 273–313
Efron B (1981) Nonparametric estimates of standard error: the jackknife, the bootstrap and other methods. Biometrika 68:589–599
Fischlin A, Midgley GF, Price JT, Leemans R, Gopal B, Turley C, Rounsevell MDA, Dube OP, Tarazona J, Velichko AA (2007) In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 211–272
Fisher FM (1966) The identification problem in econometrics. McGraw-Hill, New York
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2003) The digital soil map of the world (DSMW) CD-ROM. Rome
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2005) Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the twenty-first century (CD-ROM). FAO Land and Water Digital Media Series. FAO, Rome
Gitay H, Brwon S, Easterling W, Jallow B (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: McCarthy et al (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptations, and vulnerabilities. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 237–342
Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks HT, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16:147–168
Hahn GL (1981) Housing and management to reduce climate impacts on livestock. J Anim Sci 52:175–186
Heckman J (1979) Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica 47:153–162
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jacob T, Wahr J, Pfeffer WT, Swensen S (2012) Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature. doi:10.1038/nature10847
Johnston J, Dinardo J (1997) Econometric methods, 4th ed. McGraw-Hill
Mader TL (2003) Environmental stress in confined beef cattle. J Anim Sci 81:110–119
Magrin G, Garcia CG, Choque DC, Gimenez JC, Moreno AR, Nagy GJ, Nobre C, Villamizar A (2007) Latin America. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 581–615
Markowitz H (1952) Portfolio selection. J Finance 7:77–91
Matthews E (1983) Global vegetation and land use: new high-resolution data bases for climate studies. J Clim Appl Meteorol 22(3):474–487
McFadden DL (1974) Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In: Zarembka P (ed) Frontiers in econometrics. Academic, New York, pp 105–142
Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84:753–771
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (2007) Our changing planet: the view from space. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Available at http://climate.nasa.gov
New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25
Nordhaus W (1994) Managing the global commons. The MIT Press, Cambridge
Reilly J, Baethgen W, Chege F, Van de Geijn S, Enda L, Iglesias A, Kenny G, Patterson D, Rogasik J, Rotter R, Rosenzweig C, Sombroek W, Westbrook J (1996) Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptations. In: Watson R, Zinyowera M, Moss R, Dokken D (eds) Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 427–468
Reilly J, Tubiello T, McCarl B, Abler D, Darwin R, Fuglie K, Hollinger S, Izaurralde C, Jagtap S, Jones J, Mearns L, Ojima D, Paul E, Paustian K, Riha S, Rosenberg N, Rosenzweig C (2003) U.S. agriculture and climate change: new results. Clim Chang 59:43–69
Revelle R, Suess HE (1957) Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during the past decades. Tellus 9:18–27
Rosenzweig C, Parry M (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133–138.
Sankaran M, Hanan N, Scholes R, Ratnam J, Augustine D, Cade B, Gignoux J, Higgins S, Le Roux X, Ludwig F, Ardo J, Banyikwa F, Bronn A, Bucini G, Caylor K, Coughenour M, Diouf A, Ekaya W, Feral C, February E, Frost P, Hiernaux P, Hrabar H, Metzger K, Prins H, Ringrose S, Seal W, Tews J, Worden J, Zambatis N (2005) Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature 438:846–849
Schenkler W, Hanemann M, Fisher A (2005) Will US agriculture really benefit from global warming? Accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach. Am Econ Rev 95:395–406
Schlenker W, Roberts M (2009) Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to crop yields under climate change. Proc Natl Sci Acad US 106(37):15594–15598
Schmidt GA, Ruedy R, Hansen JE, Aleinov I, Bell N, Bauer M, Bauer S, Cairns B, Canuto V, Cheng Y, DelGenio A, Faluvegi G, Friend AD, Hall TM, Hu Y, Kelley M, Kiang NY, Koch D, Lacis AA, Lerner J, Lo KK, Miller RL, Nazarenko L, Oinas V, Perlwitz J, Rind D, Romanou A, Russell GL, Sato M, Shindell DT, Stone PH, Sun S, Tausnev N, Thresher D, Yao MS (2005) Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J Clim 19:153–192
Seo SN (2006) Modeling Farmer Responses to Climate Change: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations in Livestock Management in Africa. Yale University. p218
Seo SN (2010a) Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change?: a micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture? Food Policy 35:32–40
Seo SN (2010b) A microeconometric analysis of adapting portfolios to climate change: adoption of agricultural systems in Latin America. Appl Econ Perspect Policy 32:489–514
Seo SN (2011a) An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America. Ecol Econ 70:825–834
Seo SN (2011b) A geographically scaled analysis of adaptation to climate change with spatial models using agricultural systems in Africa. J Agric Sci 149:437–449
Seo SN, Mendelsohn R (2008) A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change impacts on South American farms. Chil J Agric Res 68:69–79
Seo SN, McCarl B, Mendelsohn R (2010) From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America. Ecol Econ 69:2486–2494
Steiger C (2006) Modern beef production in Brazil and Argentina. Choices Mag 21:105–110
Tobin J (1958) Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk. Rev Econ Stud 25:65–86
Tubiello FN, Ewert F (2002) Simulating the effects of elevated CO2 on crops: approaches and applications for climate change. Eur J Agron 18:57–74
World Bank (2004) World Development Indicators. Washington D.C. Available at http://devdata.worldbank.org. Accessed March 2006
World Bank (2008) World development report 2008: agriculture for development. World Bank, Washington
Acknowledgments
I thank the World Bank for supporting the Climate Change and Rural Poverty in Latin America project from which the survey data were collected.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Seo, S.N. Refining spatial resolution and spillovers of a micro-econometric analysis of adapting portfolios to climate change using the global positioning system. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18, 1019–1034 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9405-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9405-3