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Spatial vulnerability assessment of silver fir and Norway spruce dieback driven by climate warming

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Abstract

Context

A significant forest decline has been noticed these last years in Europe. Managers need tools to better anticipate these massive events.

Objectives

We evaluated the efficiency of easily available data about environmental conditions and stand characteristics to determine different levels of vulnerability.

Methods

We combined remote sensing images, photo-interpretation, and digital models describing environmental conditions within a modelling approach to achieve spatial vulnerability assessment of the stands. We focused on silver fir and Norway spruce stands in the Vosges mountains (8900 km2, northeastern France), where severe symptoms of decline are visible.

Results

Silver fir were predicted highly vulnerable on 7% of their area versus 33% for Norway spruce. Using an independent dataset, we observed ten-times (silver fir) and two-times (Norway spruce) higher mortality rates in the units with a high level of vulnerability than in the others. About half of the model deviance was directly or indirectly explained by variables related to water stress (soils displaying low water availability, having suffered severe drying events these last years). Furthermore, the stands acclimatised to drought conditions were more resilient. Stand characteristics also influenced dieback spread, suggesting that an evolution of silvicultural practices toward mixed stands with broadleaved species and uneven-aged trees can contribute to better adapt to future climate conditions.

Conclusion

Vulnerability maps based on easily available geographic information describing climate, soil, and topography can efficiently discriminate canopy mortality patterns over broad areas, and can be useful tools for managers to mitigate the effects of climate change on forests.

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Data availability

The datasets analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. https://www.onf.fr/+/4bd::ces-arbres-forestiers-qui-souffrent-de-la-secheresse.html.

  2. https://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/IMG/pdf/RF-Massif_vosgien.pdf.

  3. https://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/spip.php?article646.

  4. https://theia.cnes.fr/atdistrib/rocket/#/search?collection=SENTINEL2.

  5. https://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/spip.php?article646.

  6. The vulnerability maps for silver fir and Norway spruce dieback can be downloaded from the SILVAE website (https://silvae.agroparistech.fr/home/).

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Funding

The Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) SILVA is supported by a grant overseen by the French National Research Agency (ANR) as part of the ‘Investissements d’Avenir’ program (ANR-11-LABX-0002-01, Lab of Excellence ARBRE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Silva, 54000, Nancy, France

    Christian Piedallu, Donatien Dallery, Célia Bresson, Myriam Legay & Jean-Claude Gégout

  2. ONF, DT Grand-Est, cité administrative, 14, rue du Maréchal Juin, 37084, Strasbourg Cedex, France

    Rodolphe Pierrat

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  1. Christian Piedallu
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Contributions

D.D. performed the remote sensing analysis, CB contributed to the GIS analysis, IS and JCG provided bioindicated indices, RP provided data from exceptional sanitary cuts, ML and CP developed the study conception and design, CP performed the data collection, realized the analysis and wrote the paper. All of the authors read and corrected the paper, and gave their final approval for publication.

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Correspondence to Christian Piedallu.

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Piedallu, C., Dallery, D., Bresson, C. et al. Spatial vulnerability assessment of silver fir and Norway spruce dieback driven by climate warming. Landsc Ecol 38, 341–361 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-022-01570-1

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