Abstract
Adolescent future orientation is highly relevant to the sociocultural context in which they are situated. However, adolescents in non-Western cultures are underrepresented in literature. This study investigated the profiles and developmental transitions of adolescent educational future orientation, as well as the roles of adolescent academic achievement and perceived parental educational expectations within the context of Chinese culture. The sample was 605 (54.5% boys) urban and rural senior high school students followed for one and a half years. Three distinctive profiles were identified: the concentrated-committed profile characterized by the concentrated goals (i.e., hopes and fears for future education) and the highest level of planning and evaluation components, the low profile scoring the lowest on each component, and the tentative profile characterized by the highest level of hopes and fears density and mean levels of planning and evaluation components. Latent transition analysis revealed high stabilities for the concentrated-committed and the low profiles but very low stabilities for the tentative profile, and transitions were more common in ways from low or tentative profiles to the concentrated-committed profile rather than vice versa. Greater academic achievement predicted the concentrated-committed profile. Perceived parental educational expectations increased adolescent educational future orientation, particularly for urban adolescents or those in the tentative profile. Urban adolescents were more likely to be in or transition into the concentrated-committed profile, particularly for those with higher academic achievement or parental expectations. These findings demonstrate the heterogeneities of adolescent thinking about future education, reveal how the Chinese sociocultural factors contribute to shaping the development of adolescent future orientation, and provide implications for the promotion of adolescent future orientation in education.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Beal, S. J., & Crockett, L. J. (2010). Adolescents’ occupational and educational aspirations and expectations: Links to high school activities and adult educational attainment. Developmental Psychology, 46, 258–265. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017416.
Beal, S. J., Crockett, L. J., & Peugh, J. (2016). Adolescents’ changing future expectations predict the timing of adult role transitions. Developmental Psychology, 52, 1606–1618. https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000189.
Buchmann, M., Grütter, J., & Zuffianò, A. (2022). Parental educational aspirations and children’s academic self‐concept: Disentangling state and trait components on their dynamic interplay. Child Development, 93, 7–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13645.
Cheung, G. W., & Rensvold, R. B. (2002). Evaluating goodness-of-fit indexes for testing measurement invariance. Structural Equation Modeling, 9, 233–255. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15328007SEM0902_5.
DiPrete, T. A., & Eirich, G. M. (2006). Cumulative advantage as a mechanism for inequality: A review of theoretical and empirical developments. Annual Review of Sociology, 32, 271–297. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.32.061604.123127.
Dunkel, C. S. (2000). Possible selves as a mechanism for identity exploration. Journal of Adolescence, 23, 519–529. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327965PLI1104_01.
Fishman, S. H. (2019). Do plans really matter? Re-assessing the role of adolescent expectations in educational attainment. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 62, 100407 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2019.05.002.
Fuligni, A. J., & Zhang, W. (2004). Attitudes toward family obligation among adolescents in contemporary urban and rural China. Child Development, 75, 180–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8624.2004.00662.x.
Hatano, K., Sugimura, K., Crocetti, E., & Meeus Wim, H. J. (2020). Diverse-and-dynamic pathways in educational and interpersonal identity formation during adolescence: Longitudinal links with psychosocial functioning. Child Development, 91, 1203–1218. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13301.
Hilley, C. D., Johnson, S. L., & Cheng, T. L. (2019). Profiles of future orientation among assault-injured adolescents: Correlates and concurrent outcomes. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 48, 1555–1566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-019-01032-z.
Jia, Q., & Ericson, D. P. (2017). Equity and access to higher education in China: Lessons from Hunan province for university admissions policy. International Journal of Educational Development, 52, 97–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2016.10.011.
Klimstra, T. A., Hale, W. W., Raaijmakers, A. W., Branje, J. T., & Meeus, H. J. (2010). Identity formation in adolescence: Change or stability? Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 39, 150–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-009-9401-4.
Kline, R. B. (2016). Principles and practice of structural equation modeling. 4th ed. New York: Guilford Press.
Knapp, K.S., Chimed-Ochir, U., Apsley, H.B., Eng, S., Fosco, G.M., & Cleveland, H.H. (2022). Profiles of future expectations among urban adolescents in Cambodia. Developmental Psychology, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0001374.
Lazarides, R., Viljaranta, J., Aunola, K., Pesu, L., & Nurmi, J. E. (2016). The role of parental expectations and students’ motivational profiles for educational aspirations. Learning and Individual Differences, 51, 29–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2016.08.024.
Liu, G. X. Y., & Helwig, C. C. (2020). Autonomy, social inequality, and support in Chinese urban and rural adolescents' reasoning about the Chinese college entrance examination (Gaokao). Journal of Adolescent Research, 37, 639–671. https://doi.org/10.1177/0743558420914082.
Luo, G., Zeng, S., & Baležentis, T. (2022). Multidimensional Measurement and Comparison of China’s Educational Inequality. Social Indicators Research, 163, 857–874. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02921-w.
Meeus, W., van de Schoot, R., Keijsers, L., & Branje, S. (2012). Identity statuses as developmental trajectories: A five-wave longitudinal study in early-to-middle and middle-to-late adolescents. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 41, 1008–1021. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-011-9730-y.
Muthén, L. K., & Muthén, B. O. (2012). Mplus user’s guide. 7th ed. Los Angeles, CA: Muthén & Muthén.
Nurmi, J. E. (1991). How do adolescents see their future? A review of the development of future orientation and planning. Developmental Review, 11, 1–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/0273-2297(91)90002-6.
Nurmi, J. E., Seginer, R., & Poole, M. (1990). Future-orientation questionnaire. Finland: University of Helsinki.
Oshri, A., Duprey, E. B., Kogan, S. M., Carlson, M. W., & Liu, S. H. (2018). Growth patterns of future orientation among maltreated youth: A prospective examination of the emergence of resilience. Developmental Psychology, 54, 1456–1471. https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000528.
Pinquart, M., & Ebeling, M. (2020). Parental educational expectations and academic achievement in children and adolescents—a meta-analysis. Educational Psychology Review, 32, 463–480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-019-09506-z.
Pop, E. L., Negru-Subtrica, O., Crocetti, E., Opre, A., & Meeus, W. (2016). On the interplay between academic achievement and educational identity: A longitudinal study. Journal of Adolescence, 47, 135–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescence.2015.11.004.
Prince, D. M., Epstein, M., Nurius, P. S., Gorman-Smith, D., & Henry, D. B. (2019). Reciprocal effects of positive future expectations, threats to safety, and risk behavior across adolescence. Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology, 48, 54–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/15374416.2016.1197835.
Seginer, R. (2009). Future orientation: Developmental and ecological perspectives. New York: Springer.
Seginer, R., & Mahajna, S. (2018). Future orientation links perceived parenting and academic achievement: Gender differences among Muslim adolescents in Israel. Learning and Individual Differences, 67, 197–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2018.08.009.
Shahaeian, A., Peterson, C. C., Slaughter, V., & Wellman, H. M. (2011). Culture and the sequence of steps in theory of mind development. Developmental Psychology, 47(5), 1239–1247. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0023899.
Sharp, E. H., Seaman, J., Tucker, C. J., van Gundy, K. T., & Rebellon, C. J. (2019). Adolescents’ future aspirations and expectations in the context of a shifting rural economy. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 49, 534–548. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-019-01152-6.
Shubert, J., Wray-Lake, L., & McKay, B. (2020). Looking ahead and working hard: How school experiences foster adolescents’ future orientation and perseverance. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 30, 989–1007. https://doi.org/10.1111/jora.12575.
Sun, R.C., & Shek, D.T. (2012). Beliefs in the future as a positive youth development construct: A conceptual review. The Scientific World Journal, 527038. https://doi.org/10.1100/2012/527038.
Waterman, A. S. (1982). Identity development from adolescence to adulthood: An extension of theory and a review of research. Developmental Psychology, 18, 341–358. https://doi.org/10.1037/0012-1649.18.3.341.
Wu, N., Hou, Y., Wang, Q., & Yu, C. (2018). Intergenerational transmission of educational aspirations in Chinese families: Identifying mediators and moderators. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 47, 1238–1251. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-018-0820-y.
Wu, L., Yan, K., & Zhang, Y. (2020). Higher education expansion and inequality in educational opportunities in China. Higher Education, 80, 549–570. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-020-00498-2.
Yang, Y., Chen, L., Zhang, L., Ji, L., & Zhang, W. (2020). Developmental changes in associations between depressive symptoms and peer relationships: A four-year follow-up of Chinese adolescents. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 49, 1913–1927. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-020-01236-8.
Zhang, J., Jin, S., Torero, M., & Li, T. (2018). Teachers and urban‐rural gaps in educational outcomes. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100, 1207–1223. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay009.
Zhang, L. L., & Zhang, W. X. (2008). Personal future planning in middle and late adolescence and its relation to adolescents’ communication with parents and friends. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 40, 583–592. https://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/CN/Y2008/V40/I05/583
Zhang, W., Chen, L., Yu, F., Wang, S., & Nurmi, J. E. (2015). Hopes and fears for the future among Chinese adolescents. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 25, 622–629. https://doi.org/10.1111/jora.12166.
Zhang, W., Wei, X., Ji, L., Chen, L., & Deater-Deckard, K. (2017). Reconsidering parenting in Chinese culture: Subtypes, stability, and change of maternal parenting style during early adolescence. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 46, 1117–1136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-017-0664-x.
Zhang, W., Zhang, L., Chen, L., Ji, L., & Deater-Deckard, K. (2019). Developmental changes in longitudinal associations between academic achievement and psychopathological symptoms from late childhood to middle adolescence. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 60, 178–188. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.12927.
Zhao, J., Li, R., Ma, J., & Zhang, W. (2019). Longitudinal relations between future planning and adolescents’ academic achievement in China. Journal of Adolescence, 75, 73–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescence.2019.07.002.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank all the participants in our study.
Funding
This research received support from the National Social Science Foundation of China (18CSH050) and National Social Science Foundation Project in Education for Young Scholars (CBA190243).
Data sharing and declarationThis paper data will not be deposited.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
R.S. participated in the interpretation of the data, performed the statistical analysis and drafted the paper; L.C. conceived of the study, participated in the interpretation of the data and drafted the paper; L.Z. helped to draft the paper; F.Y. participated in the design and help to draft the paper, W.Z. conceived of the study, participated in the design and coordination and drafted the paper. All authors read and approved the final paper.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethical approval
All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.
Informed consent
Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Song, R., Chen, L., Zhang, L. et al. Profiles and Developmental Transitions of Educational Future Orientation among Senior High School Students in China. J. Youth Adolescence 52, 2214–2229 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-023-01806-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-023-01806-6