Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling warning times for the Israel’s earthquake early warning system

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Seismology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In June 2012, the Israeli government approved the offer of the creation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) that would provide timely alarms for schools and colleges in Israel. A network configuration was chosen, consisting of a staggered line of ∼100 stations along the main regional faults: the Dead Sea fault and the Carmel fault, and an additional ∼40 stations spread more or less evenly over the country. A hybrid approach to the EEWS alarm was suggested, where a P-wave-based system will be combined with the S-threshold method. The former utilizes first arrivals to several stations closest to the event for prompt location and determination of the earthquake’s magnitude from the first 3 s of the waveform data. The latter issues alarms, when the acceleration of the surface movement exceeds a threshold for at least two neighboring stations. The threshold will be chosen to be a peak acceleration level corresponding to a magnitude 5 earthquake at a short distance range (5–10 km). The warning times or lead times, i.e., times between the alarm signal arrival and arrival of the damaging S-waves, are considered for the P, S, and hybrid EEWS methods. For each of the approaches, the P- and the S-wave travel times and the alarm times were calculated using a standard 1D velocity model and some assumptions regarding the EEWS data latencies. Then, a definition of alarm effectiveness was introduced as a measure of the trade-off between the warning time and the shaking intensity. A number of strong earthquake scenarios, together with anticipated shaking intensities at important targets, namely cities with high populations, are considered. The scenarios demonstrated in probabilistic terms how the alarm effectiveness varies depending on the target distance from the epicenter and event magnitude.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen RM (2007) The ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology and its application across California. In: Gasparini P, Manfredi G, Zschau J (eds) Earthquake early warning systems. Springer, Berlin, pp 21–44, ISBN-13 978-3-540-72240-3

  • Allen RM, Kanamori H (2003) The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California. Science 300:786–789

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RM, Gasparini P, Kamigaichi O, Böse M (2009) The status of earthquake early warning around the world: an introductory overview. Seismol Res Lett 80(5):682–693

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RM, Baer G, Clinton J, Hamiel Y, Hofstetter A, Pinsky V, Ziv A, Zollo A (2012) Earthquake early warning for Israel: recommended implementation strategy, GSI/26/2012 or GII 500/676/12 reports, December 2012. GSI and GII, Jerusalem

  • Amiran DHK, Arieh E, Turcotte T (1994) Earthquakes in Israel and adjacent areas: macroseismic observations since 100 B.C.E. Isr Explor J 44(3–4):260–305

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell KW, Eeri M, Bozorgnia Y (2008) NGA ground motion model for the geometric mean horizontal component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% damped linear elastic response spectra for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. Earthq Spectra 24(1):139–171. doi:10.1193/1.2857546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caprio M, Wiemer S, Hiemer S, Meier MA, Spada M (2013) Sybil: a system to evaluate performances of ideal earthquake early warning based on stochastic models. AGU fall meeting, December 9–13, 2013, San Francisco, USA

  • Espinosa-Aranda JM, Cuellar A, Rodriguez FH, Frontana B, Ibarrola G, Islas R, Garcia A (2011) The seismic alert system of Mexico (SASMEX): progress and its current applications. Soil Dynam Earthquake Eng 31:154–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feigin G, Shapira A (1994) A unified crustal model for calculating travel times of seismic waves across the Israel seismic network, IPRG report no. Z1/567/79(107). IPRG, Holon

  • Horiuchi S, Negishi H, Abe K et al (2005) An automatic processing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms. Bull Seism Soc Am 95:708–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horiuchi S, Horiuchi Y, Yamamoto S, Nakamura H, Wu C, Rydelek PA, Kachi M (2009) Home seismometer for earthquake early warning. Geophys Res Lett 36(5)

  • Hsiao NC, Wu YM, Shin TC, Zhao L, Teng TL (2009) Development of earthquake early warning system in Taiwan. Geophys Res Lett 36(5)

  • Ionescu C, Böse M, Wenzel F, Marmureanu A, Grigore A, Marmureanu G (2007) An early warning system for deep Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes. In: Earthquake early warning systems. Springer, Berlin, pp 343–349

  • Kanamori H (2005) Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 33:195–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klar A, Meirova T, Zaslavsky Y, Shapira A (2011) Spectral acceleration maps for use in SI 413 amendment No. 5. GII report no. 522/599/11, NBRI report no. 2012938–1 (in Hebrew). GII, Lod

  • Kuyuk HS, Allen RM, Brown H, Hellweg M, Henson I, Neuhauser D (2014) Designing a network-based earthquake early warning algorithm for California: ElarmS-2. Bull Seism Soc Am 104:162–173. doi:10.1785/0120130146

  • Mori J, Abercrombie RE (1997) Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution in California: implications for rupture initiation. J Geophys Res 102(B7):15081–15090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura Y (1998) On the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS), 9th world conference on earthquake engineering, vol VII, pp 673–678

  • Odaka Y, Ashiya K, Tsukada S, Sato S, Ohtake K, Nozaka D (2003) A new method of quickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from a single seismic record. Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:526–532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olson EL, Allen RM (2005) The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture. Nature 438:212–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oth A, Böse M, Wenzel F, Köhler N, Erdik M (2010) Evaluation and optimization of seismic networks and algorithms for earthquake early warning—the case of Istanbul (Turkey). J Geophys Res 115:B10311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinsky V (2012) Assumptions and guidelines for building earthquake early warning system in Israel. GII report no. 500/682/12. Prepared for National Steering Committee for Earthquake Preparedness, Prime Minister’s Office. GII, Lod

  • Satriano C, Lomax A, Zollo A (2008) Real-time evolutionary earthquake location for seismic early warning. Bull Seism Soc Am 98:1482–1494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Satriano C, Elia L, Martino C, Lancieri M, Zollo A, Iannaccone G (2010) PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: concepts, capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng. doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.06.00

    Google Scholar 

  • Shapira A, Hofstetter A (2002) Seismicity parameters of seismogenic zones. GII report no. 02/230/592

  • Shapira A, Hofstetter A (2008) Earthquake hazard assessment for building codes. USAID report. April 2000-March 2007, grant no. PCE-G-00-99-00038. USAID, Washington, DC

  • Stankiewicz J, Bindi D, Oth A, Parolai S (2013) Designing efficient earthquake early warning systems: case study of Almaty, Kazakhstan. J Seismol 17(1125–1137):2013. doi:10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Wald DJ, Quitoriano V, Heaton TH, Kanamori H (1999) Relationship between peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and modified Mercalli intensity in California. Earthq Spectra 15(3):557–564

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu YM, Kanamori H (2005a) Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system. Bull Seism Soc Am 95:347–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu YM, Kanamori H (2005b) Rapid assessment of damaging potential of earthquakes in Taiwan from the beginning of P waves. Bull Seism Soc Am 95:1181–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu YM, Yen HY, Zhao L, Huang BS, Liang WT (2006) Magnitude determination using initial P waves: a single-station approach. Geoph Res Lett 33:L05306

    Google Scholar 

  • Zaslavsky Y, Shapira A, Gorstein M, Kolmanovich M, Giller V, Perelman N, Livshits I, Giller D, Dan I (2005) Site response from ambient vibrations in the towns Lod and Ramle (Israel) and earthquake hazard assessment. Bull Earthquake Eng 3(3):355–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaslavsky Y, Shapira A, Ataev G, Gorstein M, Aksinenko T, Kolmanovich M, Perelman N, Hofstetter R (2009) Using ambient noise measurements in the process of assessing earthquake hazard in urban areas: examples from Israel. In: Miura T, Ikeda Y (eds) Earthquake engineering: new research. Nova, Commack, pp 156–219

  • Zohar M, Marko S (2012) Re-estimating the epicenter of the 1927 Jericho earthquake using spatial distribution of intensity data. J Appl Geoph 82(2012):19–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zollo A, Lancieri M, Nielsen S (2006) Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records. Geophys Res Lett 33(23):L23312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zollo A, Amoroso O, Lancieri M, Wu YM, Kanamori H (2010) A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks. Geophys J Int 183:963–974

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

I am grateful to Dr. Avi Shapira for initiating and guiding my study of the EEWS in Israel. The author expresses gratitude to the staff of the international committee, which elaborated the recommendations for building the EEWS in Israel (Allen et al. 2012), the resulting document forming the basis of this article. The work benefitted a lot from remarks and corrections of Dr. Kevin Fleming from the Centre for Early Warning, GFZ Potsdam, who was the first reviewer. Thanks also to the second anonymous reviewer, whose comments helped to improve the scientific contents of the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Seismological Division, Geophysical Institute of Israel, Lod, Israel

    Vladimir Pinsky

Authors
  1. Vladimir Pinsky
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vladimir Pinsky.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Pinsky, V. Modeling warning times for the Israel’s earthquake early warning system. J Seismol 19, 121–139 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9454-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9454-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation