Abstract
Objectives
To evaluate the impact of proactive police response on residential burglary and theft from vehicle in micro-time hot spots as well as whether spatial displacement occurs.
Methods
Over 2 years, 114 treatment and 103 control micro-time hot spots were assigned to groups using “trickle-flow” randomization. Responses were implemented as part of the police department’s established practices, and micro-time hot spots were blocked based on their temporal proximity—sprees or ongoing. The study was blinded and tested proactive patrol versus a no-dosage control condition.
Results
The department responded to each micro-time hot spot with, on average, five 20-min responses per day for 19 days. Eighty percent of the response time involved conducting directed patrol without encountering suspicious activity. Results show that treatment micro-time hot spots had significantly fewer crimes after 15 days (79%) and 30 days (74%). Treatment effects were greatest in the first 15 days (1.15) followed by days 16–30 (.83).
Conclusions
The study examines a real-world strategy institutionalized into the day-today operations of a police department. The largest impact on crime was seen during response. In addition, crime reductions that occurred while micro-time hot spots received response held for 2 months after the responses end with no evidence of spatial displacement. Our findings reveal larger effect sizes than most hot spots policing studies which may be due to how the unit of analysis was defined, the systematic nature of the response implementation, and the use of a no-dosage, blind control condition.
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Notes
Stratified policing is an organizational model for carrying out proactive problem-based, placed-based, offender-based, and community-based activities as part of the day-to-day business of the police organization. The primary goal is to systematize implementation and sustain proactive crime reduction practices by providing a framework for processes similar to the institutionalized process of answering calls for service. For more information see, Santos and Santos (2020).
More detail on this process is provided in the treatment fidelity section.
The study was conducted pro bono by the researchers as well as the police department in that no one or entity received external funding for time or resources spent to carry out the research.
The department serves the city of Port St. Lucie, Florida which is located along the southeast coast. The city’s population in 2015 was around 175,000 with over 120 square miles. As of July 2015, there were 224 authorized sworn and 65 civilian positions and the property crime rate in 2014 and 2015 was 1449 and 1364 per 100,000, respectively.
Similar to Sherman and Rogan’s (1995) experiment on drug houses.
No one else but the analysts and researchers saw the control bulletins.
Interestingly, over the two years of the study, there were only three times in which someone identified a micro-time hot spot on their own. In these cases, the crime analyst released the bulletin for response and the micro-time hot spot was not included in the experiment.
Note that the time spent by detectives investigating each micro-time hot spot and linking them through evidence, arrests, or property is not included here, because that is difficult to measure and is more reactive to the nature of the information and evidence available for each micro-time hot spot.
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Santos, R.B., Santos, R.G. Proactive Police Response in Property Crime Micro-time Hot Spots: Results from a Partially-Blocked Blind Random Controlled Trial. J Quant Criminol 37, 247–265 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-020-09456-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-020-09456-8