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An Ex Post Facto Evaluation of Tactical Police Response in Residential Theft from Vehicle Micro-time Hot Spots

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Abstract

Objectives

To evaluate with an ex post facto quasi-experimental design the impact of tactical police response on residential theft from vehicle crime in micro-time hot spots as well as whether spatial displacement occurs.

Methods

The evaluation uses 5 years of data from one police agency that responded to micro-time hot spots as part of its normal crime reduction efforts. To determine the experimental comparison group, propensity scores were computed using logistic regression. Cases were matched using greedy 1–1 matching with a caliper of 0.10 of the standard deviation of the logit of the propensity score and resulted in 86 pairs. t Tests were used to examine the effect of the treatment and whether spatial displacement of crime occurred as a result.

Results

Results showed that when police responded with about seven responses per day and for between 2 and 3 weeks, there was nearly a 20 % reduction in residential theft from vehicle crimes, and the micro-time hot spots with response did not last as long as those that did not. Results also showed no spatial displacement of crime as a result of the response.

Conclusions

This evaluation is first to examine tactical police strategies for property crimes occurring at micro-places in micro-time. Findings support the hypothesis that micro-time hot spots are less severe and “cool off” more quickly after a response. Thus, police should consider responding to property crime occurring in micro-places at a smaller temporal unit. Future research should further explore this unit of police response to corroborate these results.

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Notes

  1. The agency employs the Stratified Model of Problem Solving, Analysis, and Accountability (i.e., “Stratified Model”) as its organizational framework for systemizing evidence-based crime reduction strategies into the police organization’s day-to-day practices by providing actionable crime analysis products and a foundation for problem solving accountability through a structured set of meetings (Boba and Santos 2011). The Port St. Lucie, FL Police Department’s institutionalization of the Stratified Model has been successful as evidenced by a process and impact evaluation (Santos 2013a; Santos and Santos 2012), and this work has received one of the most prestigious awards in policing, the International Association of Chiefs of Police Law Enforcement Research Award (IACP 2010).

  2. This was based on the recommendations made by Thoemmes and Kim (2011) in their meta analysis of 86 social science research articles using propensity score matching to assign experimental groups.

  3. Cochran and Rubin (1973) found that using caliper widths of below 0.20 of the standard deviation of the logit eliminated approximately 99 % of the bias when estimating linear treatment effects. Austin (2010) confirmed this finding and recommended 0.20 of the standard deviation of the logit or lower as the optimal caliper width.

  4. As recommended by Imai et al. (2008).

  5. For a detailed discussion of Rossenbaum Bounds and its use in STATA, see Becker and Caliendo (2007).

  6. Based on these findings, we are currently implementing a random controlled trial to test the effectiveness of police response in micro-time hot spots. Like this evaluation, it examines tactical police response to property crime micro-time hot spots as part of a police organization’s “normal” operational practices, but instead of an ex post facto evaluation, the micro-time hot spots are randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. To improve on this evaluation, we have tightened the criteria for a micro-time hot spot, are doing block randomization by two groups, and are collecting much more detailed response data. We are 18 months into a 24–30 month treatment period.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Port St. Lucie, FL Police Department, Port St. Lucie, FL, 34984, USA

    Roberto G. Santos

  2. School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA

    Rachel Boba Santos

Authors
  1. Roberto G. Santos
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  2. Rachel Boba Santos
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Correspondence to Roberto G. Santos.

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Santos, R.G., Santos, R.B. An Ex Post Facto Evaluation of Tactical Police Response in Residential Theft from Vehicle Micro-time Hot Spots. J Quant Criminol 31, 679–698 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-015-9248-7

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