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The Application of the “Law of Crime Concentration” to Terrorism: The Jerusalem Case Study

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Abstract

Objectives

One of the areas in terrorism that has not been adequately examined, is the geographic concentration of terror attacks in a city’s micro places. The literature related to the geographical distribution of terror generally focuses on macro places: continents, countries, and regions. In contrast, in the study of ordinary crime, significant studies have been conducted on the distribution of crime in micro-places “hot spots”. The findings of these studies have great significance when adopting models of law enforcement. This study examines whether there is a concentration of terror attacks in a limited number of hot spots that are stable over time.

Methods

This study examines the entire population of terror attacks in the city of Jerusalem between 2000 and 2017 (249 attacks involving explosives, shootings, stabbings, attacks with a deadly weapon, and run over attacks) as a case study. We investigated and mapped each attack’s exact location (for the majority of attacks) and characterized the particular micro places of these terror attacks, as well as the attacks themselves.

Results

The research revealed that there is a higher frequency of terror attacks concentrated in specific hot spots and that they are stable over time.

Conclusions

The concentration of terror attacks calls for a specialized counterterrorism response equivalent to “hot spots policing” based on the characteristics of the potential terrorist hot spots.

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Notes

  1. As mentioned, “Facilitating conditions” are one of the ‘four pillars of opportunity’ necessary for a terrorist attack (Clarke and Newman 2006; Fahey et al. 2012; Perry et al. 2019). According to Eck and Madensen (2009) the opportunity component includes the convergence of physical and social circumstances in time and space to influence the attackers’ perception when deciding to carry out the attack. Since the social circumstances of Jewish terrorists are considerably different from those of Palestinians, the two cases of Jewish terrorism were excluded from the analysis.

  2. There are Palestinian villages (for example: the Kafr Aqab area in the north, Shuafat refugee camp in the north-east, Arab al- Swachra, Um Lyson and Umm Tuba in southeast of Jerusalem) that were annexed to the city of Jerusalem after the Six-Day War. Although they are technically within the municipal jurisdiction of Jerusalem, in many respects they are not an integral part of the city of Jerusalem and therefore they were not included in the study. It is also important to note that Jewish citizens rarely enter these locations and therefore there is an absence of potential victims. The study also did not include the areas adjacent to the security checkpoints on the city’s boundaries which border the Palestinian Authority, since they are also not an integral part of the city. See: The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research—http://en.jerusaleminstitute.org.il/.

  3. Most of the attackers who carried out the 249 attacks were killed or arrested (and then interrogated) following their attacks. As such, their identity is known. In a few cases, the attackers were not apprehended but the investigation following the attack clearly determined that the attack was carried out by Arabs targeting Jews. Not included in this study were attacks where there was uncertainty regarding whether they involved an Arab terrorist targeting Jews.

  4. A form of irregular warfare in which a small group of paramilitary combatants use the classic strategy of hit and run warfare while taking advantage of some form of sovereignty or control over a defined geographical area and its population (Martin 2016).

  5. Not including those Arab villages annexed to Jerusalem (see footnote 2 page 11).

  6. These attackers did not belong to any of the known local organizations and are therefore believed to have lacked formal infrastructure supporting the attack.

  7. See the Israeli Security Agency (ISA) site at https://www.shabak.gov.il/publications.

  8. This is especially noticeable at the bottleneck passages on the way and inside the Old City where many of the attacks have been carried out. The Damascus Gate for example is used for passage between the Old City and the East Jerusalem neighborhoods adjacent to it and is open for pedestrians only. Tens of thousands of Palestinians from the West Bank pass through the Damascus Gate in order to pray at the Al-Aqsa mosque. This gate is also the entrance which is used by many Jews on their way to the Western Wall and the Old City. https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%A8_%D7%A9%D7%9B%D7%9D.

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  1. Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, Hebrew University Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, 91905, Jerusalem, Israel

    Simon Perry

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Appendix

Appendix

See Figs. 2 and 3.

Fig. 2
figure 2

Terror hot spots in Jerusalem

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Fig. 3
figure 3

The proximity of three of the four main terror hot spots in Jerusalem

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Perry, S. The Application of the “Law of Crime Concentration” to Terrorism: The Jerusalem Case Study. J Quant Criminol 36, 583–605 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09411-2

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