Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Journal of Paleolimnology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Reconciliation of paleolimnology inference models with hindcasts from mechanistic water column models aided the reconstruction of past relationships for total phosphorus/dissolved oxygen and acid neutralizing capacity/pH in highly polluted lake ecosystems in New York State. Pre-disturbance Onondaga Lake, Syracuse, NY, was shown to have experienced seasonal hypolimnetic anoxia even under oligotrophic (<10 ug l−1) phosphorus levels. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York State the paired modeling confirmed that, while many lakes have the potential to eventually recover from acidification by atmospheric deposition, approximately 30% likely experienced naturally acidic conditions (pH < 6) prior to increases in industrial emissions. Comparison between the model results illuminated areas of individual model inadequacy, improved understanding of lake ecology, and increased confidence in the ability of predictive water column models to accurately develop restoration scenarios representing improved conditions. The work presented here is the first such comparison modeling for total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and acid neutralizing capacity. The technique remains to be more widely applied geographically and extended to less heavily stressed lake systems. Because a fossil inference and mechanistic hindcast should independently lead to similar results, comparison modeling is a potentially powerful tool for examining past interactions between ecosystem structure and ecosystem functioning.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aber JD, Federer CA (1992) A generalized, lumped-parameter model of photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and net primary production in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Oecologia 92:463–474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anchor QEA (2007) Development of a mechanistic water quality model of Onondaga Lake, phase 2 report: model development and calibration. Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection, Syracuse

    Google Scholar 

  • Anchor QEA (2011) Phase 3 model validation and application report, Onondaga Lake water quality monitoring project. Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection, Syracuse

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson NJ, Bugmann H, Dearing JA, Gaillard M-J (2006) Linking palaeoenvironmental data and models to understand the past and to predict the future. Trends Ecol Evol 21:696–704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Battarbee RW, Monteith DT, Juggins S, Evans CD, Jenkins A, Simpson GL (2005) Reconstructing pre-acidification pH for an acidified Scottish loch: a comparison of palaeolimnological and modelling approaches. Environ Pollut 137:135–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belyea LR (2007) Revealing the emperor’s new clothes: niche-based palaeoenvironmental reconstruction in the light of recent ecological theory. Holocene 17:683–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennion H (1994) A diatom-phosphorus transfer function for shallow, eutrophic ponds in southeast England. Hydrobiologia 275:391–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennion H, Battarbee RW, Sayer CD, Simpson GL, Davidson TA (2011) Defining reference conditions and restoration targets for lake ecosystems using palaeolimnology: a synthesis. J Paleolimnol 45:533–544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birks HJB, Line JM, Juggins S, Stevenson AC, Ter Braak CJF (1990) Diatoms and pH reconstruction. Philos Trans R Soc B 327:263–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brodersen KP, Quinlan R (2006) Midges as palaeoindicators of lake productivity, eutrophication and hypolimnetic oxygen. Quaternary Sci Rev 25:1995–2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks SJ, Langdon PG, Heiri O (2007) The identification and use of Palaearctic Chironomidae larvae in palaeoecology. Quaternary Research Association, London, QRA Technical Guide No. 10

  • Burns DA, McHale MR, Driscoll CT, Roy KM (2006) Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA. Hydrol Process 20:1611–1627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camburn KE, Charles DF (2000) Diatoms of low-alkalinity lakes in the Northeastern United States. The Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, Philadelphia USA, Spec Pub 18

  • Charles DF, Smol JP (1988) New methods for using diatoms and chrysophytes to infer past pH of low-alkalinity lakes. Limnol Oceanogr 33:1451–1462

    Google Scholar 

  • Charles DF, Whitehead DR (1986) Paleoecological investigation of recent lake acidification: methods and project description. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, EPRI Rep EA-4906

  • Charles DF, Knowles C, Davis RS (eds) (2002) Protocols for the analysis of algal samples collected as part of the US Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Patrick Center for Environmental Research, The Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia, Report No. 02–06

  • Cumming BF, Smol JP, Kingston JC, Charles DF, Birks HJB, Camburn KE, Dixit SS, Uutala AJ, Selle AR (1992) How much acidification has occurred in Adirondack region lakes (New York, USA) since preindustrial times? Can J Fish Aquat Sci 49:128–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cumming BF, Davey KA, Smol JP, Birks HJB (1994) When did acid-sensitive Adirondack lakes (New York, USA) begin to acidify and are they still acidifying? Can J Fish Aquat Sci 51:1550–1568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Devan SP, Effler SW (1984) History of phosphorus loading to Onondaga Lake. J Environ Eng 110:93–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Driscoll CT, Newton RM, Gubala CP, Baker JP, Christensen SW (1991) Adirondack Mountains. In: Charles DF (ed) Acidic deposition and aquatic ecosystems: regional case studies. Springer, New York, pp 133–202

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Driscoll CT, Lawrence GB, Bulger AJ, Butler TJ, Cronan CS, Eagar C, Lambert KF, Likens GE, Stoddard JL, Weathers KC (2001) Acidic deposition in the northeastern United States: sources and inputs, ecosystem effects, and management strategies. Bioscience 51:180–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, Harnett G (1996) Background. In: Effler SW (ed) Limnological and engineering analysis of a polluted urban lake: prelude to environmental management of Onondaga Lake. Springer, New York, pp 1–31

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, Matthews DA (2003) Impacts of a soda ash facility on Onondaga Lake and the Seneca River, NY. Lake Reserv Manag 19:285–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, Perkins MG (1987) Failure of spring turnover in Onondaga Lake, NY, USA. Water Air Soil Pollut 34:285–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, Auer MT, Johnson N, Penn M, Rowell HC (1996a) Sediments. In: Effler SW (ed) Limnological and engineering analysis of a polluted urban lake: prelude to environmental management of Onondaga Lake, New York. Springer, New York, pp 600–666

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, Doerr SM, Auer MT, Canale RP, Gelda RK, Owens EM, Heidtke TM (1996b) Mechanistic modeling of water quality in Onondaga Lake. In: Effler SW (ed) Limnological and engineering analysis of a polluted urban lake: prelude to environmental management of Onondaga Lake, New York. Springer, New York, pp 667–788

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, O’Donnell DM, Owens CJ (2002a) America’s most polluted lake: using robotic buoys to monitor the rehabilitation of Onondaga Lake. J Urban Technol 9(2):21–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Effler SW, O’Donnell SM, Matthews DA, Matthews CA (2002b) Limnological and loading information and a phosphorus total maximum daily load (TMDL) analysis for Onondaga Lake. Lake Reserv Manag 18:87–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enache MD, Charles DF, Belton TJ, Callinan CW (2012) Total phosphorus changes in New York and New Jersey lakes (USA) inferred from sediment cores. Lake Reserv Manag 28:293–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fakhraei H, Driscoll CT, Selvendiran P, DePinto JV, Bloomfield J, Quinn S, Rowell HC (2014) Development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for acid-impaired lakes in the Adirondack region of New York. Atmos Environ 95:277–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferrante JG (2005) Onondaga Lake: a changing ecosystem. Clear Waters 35:10–16

  • Galloway JN, Likens GE, Hawley ME (1984) Acid precipitation: natural versus anthropogenic components. Science 226:829–831

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gbondo-Tugbawa SS, Driscoll CT, Aber JD, Likens GE (2001) Evaluation of an integrated biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC) at a northern hardwood forest ecosystem. Water Resour Res 37:1057–1070

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gelda R, Owens E, Matthews D, Effler S, Chapra S, Auer M, Gawde R (2013) Modeling effects of sediment diagenesis on recovery of hypolimnetic oxygen. J Environ Eng 139:44–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gimmi U, Bugmann H (2013) Preface: integrating historical ecology and ecological modeling. Landsc Ecol 28:785–787

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herlihy AT, Kamman NC, Sifneos JC, Charles D, Enache MD, Stevenson RJ (2013) Using multiple approaches to develop nutrient criteria for lakes in the conterminous USA. Freshw Sci 32:367–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins J, Roy K, Driscoll C, Buerkett C (2005) Acid rain and the Adirondacks: a research summary. Adirondacks Lakes Survey Corporation, Ray Brook

    Google Scholar 

  • Juggins S (2013) Quantitative reconstructions in palaeolimnology: new paradigm or sick science? Quaternary Sci Rev 64:20–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juggins S, Birks JBH (2012) Quantitative environmental reconstructions from biological data. In: Birks JBH, Lotter AF, Juggins S, Smol JP (eds) Tracking environmental change using lake sediments. Data handling and numerical techniques, vol 5. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 431–494

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Köster D, Racca JMJ, Pienitz R (2004) Diatom-based inference models and reconstructions revisited: methods and transformations. J Paleolimnol 32:233–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krammer K, Lange-Bertalot H (1986) Bacillariophyceae. 1–4 (1986, 1988, 1991). Teil: Naviculaceae. In: Ettl H, Gerloff J, Heynig H, Mollenhauer D (eds) Süßwasserflora von Mitteleuropa, Band 2/1. Gustav Fischer Verlag, Stuttgart

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence GB, Sutherland JW, Boylen CW, Nierzwicki-Bauer SW, Momen B, Baldigo BP, Simonin HA (2007) Acid rain effects on aluminum mobilization clarified by inclusion of strong organic acids. Environ Sci Technol 41:93–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999) Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26:759–762

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews DA, Effler SW, Prestigiacomo AR, O’Donnell SM (2015) Trophic state responses of Onondaga Lake, New York, to reductions in phosphorus loading from advanced wastewater treatment. Inland Waters 5:125–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nürnberg GK (1995) Quantifying anoxia in lakes. Limnol Oceanogr 40:1100–1111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NYSDEC (2012) Total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus in Onondaga Lake. Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany

    Google Scholar 

  • NYSDEC (2014) Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for Acid Impaired Lakes in the Adirondack Park. NYS Forest Preserve Adirondack Region, New York. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany

    Google Scholar 

  • Onondaga Country (2013) Onondaga 2011 lake ambient monitoring program, 2011 annual report. Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection, Onondaga County

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan R, Smol JP (2001) Chironomid-based inference models for estimating end-of-summer hypolimnetic oxygen from south-central Ontario shield lakes. Freshw Biol 46:1529–1551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan R, Smol JP, Hall RI (1998) Quantitative inferences of past hypolimnetic anoxia in south-central Ontario lakes using fossil midges (Diptera: Chironomidae). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55:587–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan R, Paterson AM, Smol JP, Douglas MSV, Clark BJ (2005) Comparing different methods of calculating volume-weighted hypolimnetic oxygen (VWHO) in lakes. Aquat Sci 67:97–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan R, Clark BJ, Paterson AM (2009) Volume-weighted hypolimnetic oxygen (VWHO) and extent of anoxia and hypoxia in lakes: how do these metrics of hypolimnetic oxygen conditions compare? [Abstract] Canadian Conference for Fisheries Research (CCFFR) Annual Meeting, Ottawa (ON), Jan 9–11

  • Ritchie JC, McHenry JR (1973) Determination of fallout 137Cs and naturally occurring gamma-ray emitters in sediments. Int J Appl Radiat Isot 24:575–578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowell HC (1996) Paleolimnology of Onondaga Lake: the history of anthropogenic impacts on water quality. Lake Reserv Manag 12:35–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowell HC, Bopp RF, Peng F, Velinsky DJ, Bloomfield JA (2015) Annually laminated sediments from Onondaga Lake, NY (USA) provide a basis for high-resolution studies of lake degradation and recovery. J Paleolimnol 53:107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowell HC, Enache MD, Quinlan R, Smith AJ, Bloomfield JA, Charles DF, Effler SW (2016) Quantitative paleolimnological inference models applied to a high resolution biostratigraphic study of lake degradation and recovery, Onondaga Lake, New York (USA). J Paleolimnol 55:241–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sickman JO, Bennett DM, Lucero DM, Whitmore TJ, Kenney WF (2013) Diatom-inference models for acid-neutralizing capacity and nitrate based on 41 calibration lakes in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. J Paleolimnol 50:159–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smol JP, Stoermer EF (eds) (2010) The diatoms: applications for the environmental and earth sciences. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan TJ (2000) Aquatic effects of acidic deposition. CRC Press LLC, Boca Raton

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan TJ, Driscoll CT, Gherini SA, Munson RK, Cook RB, Charles DF, Yatsko CP (1989) Influence of aqueous aluminium and organic acids on measurement of acid neutralizing capacity in surface waters. Nature 338:408–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan TJ, Cosby BJ, Driscoll CT, Charles DF, Hemond HF (1996) Influence of organic acids on model projections of lake acidification. Water Air Soil Pollut 91:271–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka H (2007) Taxonomic studies of the genera Cyclotella (Kützing) Brébisson, Discostella Houk and Klee, and Puncticulata Håkansson in the family Sephanodiscaceae Glezer and Makarova (Bacillariophyta) in Japan. Bibliotheca Diatomologica, Stuttgart

    Google Scholar 

  • USEPA (2009) National lakes assessment: a collaborative survey of the nation’s lakes. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, EPA 841-R-09-001

  • Vollenweider RA (1975) Input-output models with special reference to the phosphorus loading concept in limnology. Schweiz Z Hydrol 33:53–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Wright RF, Cosby BJ, Hornberger GM, Galloway JN (1986) Comparison of paleolimnological with magic model reconstructions of water acidification. Water Air Soil Pollut 30:367–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Anchor QEA and Mihaela Enache for contributions to the original work. This is contribution #335 of the Upstate Freshwater Institute.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (Retired), 625 Broadway, Albany, NY, 12233-3502, USA

    H. Chandler Rowell & Jay A. Bloomfield

  2. Patrick Center for Environmental Research, Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University, 1900 Benjamin Franklin Parkway, Philadelphia, PA, 19103, USA

    Donald F. Charles

  3. Syracuse University, 151 Link Hall, Syracuse, NY, 13244, USA

    Charles T. Driscoll

  4. Upstate Freshwater Institute, P.O. Box 506, Syracuse, NY, 13214, USA

    Steven W. Effler

Authors
  1. H. Chandler Rowell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jay A. Bloomfield
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Donald F. Charles
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Charles T. Driscoll
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Steven W. Effler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to H. Chandler Rowell.

Additional information

We dedicate this manuscript to our colleague and friend Steven W. Effler, who made numerous important contributions to limnological science and water resource management.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rowell, H.C., Bloomfield, J.A., Charles, D.F. et al. Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality. J Paleolimnol 58, 119–133 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-017-9964-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-017-9964-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation