Abstract
This paper has the aim of making Johannes von Kries’s masterpiece, Die Principien der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung of 1886, a little more accessible to the modern reader in three modest ways: first, it discusses the historical background to the book (in particular, what Keynes later termed the “principle of indifference”); next, it summarizes the basic elements of von Kries’s approach (in particular, his “Principle of the Spielraum”); and finally, it examines the so-called “principle of cogent reason” with which von Kries’s name is often identified in the English literature.
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Acknowledgments
This paper had its origins in a conference on von Kries and his Principien held in Bonn in September 2012. I thank Jacob Rosenthal for his initial invitation to attend it, his subsequent and generous discussion of a number of difficult passages in von Kries, and his assistance with some of the translations. I also thank Michael Heidelberger who at an early stage was very helpful in providing me with a searchable copy of the Principien and answering some questions. Thanks also to Guido Fioretti and Reinhard Siegmund-Schultze, who both provided copies of material not readily available, and Andre Carus for helpful discussions and translations. Finally two anonymous referees made a number of very helpful suggestions regarding the first draft of the paper. Needless to say, I remain solely responsible for whatever errors or infelicities remain.
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Zabell, S. Johannes von Kries’s Principien: A Brief Guide for the Perplexed. J Gen Philos Sci 47, 131–150 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10838-015-9320-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10838-015-9320-x