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An Investigation of the “Jumping to Conclusions” Data-Gathering Bias and Paranoid Thoughts in Asperger Syndrome

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Abstract

The existence of a data-gathering bias, in the form of jumping to conclusions, and links to paranoid ideation was investigated in Asperger syndrome (AS). People with AS (N = 30) were compared to a neurotypical control group (N = 30) on the Reading the Mind in the Eyes and the Beads tasks, with self-report measures of depression, general anxiety, social anxiety, self-consciousness and paranoid ideation. The AS group performed less well than the control group on the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Task with regard to accuracy but responded more quickly and tended to make decisions on the basis of less evidence on the Beads Task with 50 % demonstrating a clear ‘jumping to conclusions bias’, whereas none of the control group showed such a bias. Depression and general anxiety were associated with paranoid ideation but not data-gathering style, which was contrary to expectation.

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Notes

  1. Bayesian probability relies on Bayes' theorem, which has been used to explain attitude formation and related behaviour as it provides ‘a mathematical rule for deciding how prior opinion or choices should optimally be modified in the light of new evidence’ (Reber 1995).

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  1. School of Psychological Sciences, University of Manchester, Zochonis Building, Brunswick Street, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

    Claire Jänsch & Dougal Julian Hare

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Jänsch, C., Hare, D.J. An Investigation of the “Jumping to Conclusions” Data-Gathering Bias and Paranoid Thoughts in Asperger Syndrome. J Autism Dev Disord 44, 111–119 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-013-1855-2

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