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The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the population dynamics of oceanic manta rays in the Mexican Pacific

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Abstract

Oceanic manta rays Mobula birostris are declining globally due to fisheries. Past work has shown that movements and distributions of oceanic manta ray populations are sensitive to climatic fluctuations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Revillagigedo National Park (RNP), Mexico, is a well-known aggregation site for oceanic manta rays. However, published baseline data on population structure and dynamics, and the influence of oceanographic variables on the abundance of oceanic manta rays in the region are lacking. We used 2015–2019 photo-identification data to describe baseline demographic characteristics of this population and to evaluate the influence of environmental factors on population dynamics. A significant sex bias was found with a female:male ratio of 1.4:1. Mark-recapture (MR) was used to estimate monthly abundance and provided the first superpopulation size estimate of 1172 (± 90), representing all individuals using the RNP during the survey period. The MR analysis suggests a significant relationship between the multivariate ENSO index and monthly survival probabilities, and chlorophyll-a as a driver of recruitment in surveyed dive sites. These findings provide a baseline to support effective conservation and management plans for this endangered species in the Mexican Pacific.

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Data availability

The data generated and/or analyzed during this study are included in this published article [Supplementary Information.pdf] and in the GitHub repository, [https://github.com/MadalenaCabral/Rcode-for-MarkRecap-analysis.git].

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Nautilus Liveaboards, Cantamar Liveaboards, and Mexico Liveaboards for field support. Our appreciation is also extended to all the citizen scientists who contributed photographs for the database. Carolina Segurado Marques provided support with R code. Two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments that improved the manuscript. Funding for this research was provided by CONACYT Mexico (National Council for Science and Technology) through a PhD scholarship to M. Cabral (Grant number 762908).

Funding

Funding for this research was provided by CONACYT Mexico (National Council for Science and Technology) through a PhD scholarship to Madalena Mesquitela Cabral (Grant number 762908).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur: Sur KM 5.5, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, 23080, La Paz, BCS, Mexico

    Madalena Mesquitela Pereira Cabral & Héctor Reyes-Bonilla

  2. The Manta Trust, Catemwood House, Corscombe, Dorset, UK

    Joshua D. Stewart

  3. Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA

    Joshua D. Stewart

  4. Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, The Observatory, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9LZ, Scotland

    Tiago A. Marques

  5. Centro de Estatística e Aplicações, Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Tiago A. Marques

  6. Pelagios Kakunjá A.C., 23070, La Paz, Mexico

    James T. Ketchum & Edgar Mauricio Hoyos-Padilla

  7. Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas Noroeste (CIBNOR), La Paz, BCS, Mexico

    James T. Ketchum

  8. MigraMar, Bodega Bay, CA, USA

    James T. Ketchum

  9. Ecosistemas y Conservación: Proazul Terrestre AC, Héroes de Independencia 2440, Centro, CP 23000, La Paz, BCS, Mexico

    Arturo Ayala-Bocos

  10. Fins Attached: 19675, Springs, CO, USA

    Edgar Mauricio Hoyos-Padilla

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  1. Madalena Mesquitela Pereira Cabral
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Contributions

Study conception and design by MMPC, HR-B, and TAM. Data collection and compilation by AAB. Data analysis was performed by MMPC, TAM, and JDS. Interpretation of data by MMPC, JDS, JTK, and EMH-P. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MMPC and all authors contributed to the revision of previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Madalena Mesquitela Pereira Cabral.

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The author(s)certify that there is no conflict of interest with any financial/research/academic organization, with regards to the content/research work discussed in the manuscript. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interests.

Ethical approval

This study was carried out in accordance with CONAMP Mexico (National Commission of Natural Protected Areas) guidelines. No animal was constrained and the methods employed were non-invasive in nature.

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Cabral, M.M.P., Stewart, J.D., Marques, T.A. et al. The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the population dynamics of oceanic manta rays in the Mexican Pacific. Hydrobiologia 850, 257–267 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-022-05047-9

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