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Assessment of the Calculation Results of a Mathematical Model for Operational Forecasting of the Amount of Active Power Consumption

  • POWER SYSTEMS AND ELECTRIC NETWORKS
  • Published:
Power Technology and Engineering Aims and scope

On the example of the Kaliningrad power system, using correlation-regression analysis, the main factors that affect the amount of consumed active power have been identified. These factors are combined in a mathematical model, the differences of which from the known operational forecasting models are presented in the article. The results produced by the developed mathematical model have been verified by statistical methods of analysis. The quality of the resulting active power forecast has been checked against the global indicators of time series forecasting errors, and the adequacy of the mathematical model has been assessed using the Fisher criterion. Thus, the developed mathematical model is ready for use in the dispatch center of the power system of the Kaliningrad oblast’. The proposed mathematical model can be used not only in isolated power systems, but also in energy sectors that need to perform operational forecasting of the active power amount.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Branch of “System Operator of a Uniform Power System” OJSC, Baltiiskoe RDU, Kaliningrad, Russia

    I. A. Bonchuk & A. P. Shaposhnikov

Authors
  1. I. A. Bonchuk
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  2. A. P. Shaposhnikov
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Correspondence to A. P. Shaposhnikov.

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Translated from Élektricheskie Stantsii, No. 11, November, 2021, pp. 31 – 39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.34831/EP.2021.1084.11.005

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Bonchuk, I.A., Shaposhnikov, A.P. Assessment of the Calculation Results of a Mathematical Model for Operational Forecasting of the Amount of Active Power Consumption. Power Technol Eng 56, 107–114 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10749-023-01481-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10749-023-01481-4

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