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Simulating future intra-urban land use patterns of a developing city: a case study of Jashore, Bangladesh

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A Correction to this article was published on 01 July 2022

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Abstract

Increasing urban growth at an unprecedented rate entails adverse implications for societal, economic, and environmental sustainability. In the cities of Bangladesh, the land covers are experiencing rapid construction-associated land expansion, population growth, and socioeconomic development. Comprehensive assessment and understanding of the prospects for rapid land use/land cover (LULC) changes are essential for managing land surface resources and ensuring sustainable development. Therefore, this study aims to assess the historical land use/land cover (LULC) changes and simulate future potential intra-urban LULC growth patterns of Jashore City up to 2050. We used (i) Landsat images to analyze LULC change using maximum likelihood supervised image classification method; (ii) Markov-CA model to illustrate the LULC transition matrix during 2000–2020, (iii) Multilayer Perception Neural Network Markov Chain (MPNNMC) Model to simulate future LULC patterns. The result shows that built-up area expanded quickly, while cropland and water areas have had a large loss of coverage. The LULC change analysis derived from prior LULC was utilized for future simulations, where natural and anthropogenic factors were chosen as the driving variables in the MPNNMC model. The future LULC modeling shows that compared to 2020, the urban area is expected to increase by 23.64%, whereas cropland, vegetation, unused land, and water areas are expected to reduce by 1.16%, 5.47%, 9.55%, and 7.73% respectively, by 2050. The change analysis shows that urban areas will increase the fastest during 2020–2030. The findings demonstrate that the rapid and unplanned urbanization and the rise of the population due to migration resulted in the fastest LULC transformation. The study findings contribute to the long-term ecological development of Jashore City and potentially enhance environmental decision making.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology, Khulna, Bangladesh

    Syed Riad Morshed, Md. Abdul Fattah, Md. Razzakul Islam, Fahmida Sultana, Kaniz Fatema, Md. Fazle Rabbi, Asma Amin Rimi, Fahmida Yeasmin Sami, F. M. Rezvi Amin, Musfiqur Rahman Chowdhury Seam, Mehedi Hasan Sizan, Mahamudul Hasan & Md. Nazmul Haque

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Chittagong University of Engineering and Technology, Chattogram, Bangladesh

    Md. Mojammel Hoque

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  1. Syed Riad Morshed
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The original online version of this article was revised: The affiliation of Md. Razzakul Islam and Md. Nazmul Haque is updated. The corresponding author Md. Abdul Fattah e-mail address is also updated.

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Morshed, S.R., Fattah, M.A., Hoque, M.M. et al. Simulating future intra-urban land use patterns of a developing city: a case study of Jashore, Bangladesh. GeoJournal 88, 425–448 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10609-4

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