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Changes in phosphorus use and losses in the food chain of China during 1950–2010 and forecasts for 2030

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Abstract

China has become the largest mineral phosphorus (P) fertilizer consumer in the world, but current use is not sustainable. Here, we report on a quantitative analysis of the P use and losses in the food production–consumption chain and of their relationships with socio-economic indicators for the years 1950–2010. Pathways to a more sustainable P use in 2030 were explored through scenario analyses, using the Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resource use model. Non-linear relationships were observed between changes in P use and changes in gross domestic production (GDP), suggesting a decoupling of P use from the main economic driver. More or less linear relationships were observed between changes in P use and changes in the percentages of vegetable and fruit and animal derived food in human diets. Total P losses increased from 0.2 Tg in 1950 to 3.1 Tg in 2010, while P use efficiency in the food chain decreased from 35 % in 1950 to 6 % in 2010. Our estimates suggest that 79 Tg P has accumulated in agricultural soils, 16 Tg P accumulated in landfill, and 48 Tg P has leached or has been discharged to water bodies during the past 60 years. Most of the accumulation and discharges took place in the last 10 years. We analyzed five options for increasing P use efficiency in the food chain by 2030, i.e., balanced P fertilization in crop production, precision animal P feeding, improved manure management, diet changes, and the integration of these four options. The integral adoption of these four options will increase P use efficiency in the food chain from 6 % in 2010 to 26 % in 2030. Total mineral P fertilizer use will decrease by 69 % and P losses by 68 % relative to the business as usual scenario. In conclusion, current P fertilizer use and losses are coupled to dietary choices, but have become decoupled from GDP. Further decoupling may occur when P use is defined by science-based P requirements for crops, animals and humans.

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Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the Chinese National Basic Research Program (2015CB150405) and the Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The authors would like to extend special thanks to Thomas Nesme and two anonymous reviewers of their constructive comments and suggestions in improving the quality of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286 Huaizhong Road, Shijiazhuang, 050021, Hebei, People’s Republic of China

    Zhaohai Bai & Lin Ma

  2. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, 071001, People’s Republic of China

    Wenqi Ma

  3. Department of Soil Quality, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Wei Qin & Oene Oenema

  4. Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Gerard L. Velthof & Oene Oenema

  5. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agriculture University, Beijing, 100193, People’s Republic of China

    Fusuo Zhang

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  1. Zhaohai Bai
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  2. Lin Ma
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  3. Wenqi Ma
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  4. Wei Qin
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  5. Gerard L. Velthof
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  6. Oene Oenema
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  7. Fusuo Zhang
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Correspondence to Lin Ma.

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Bai, Z., Ma, L., Ma, W. et al. Changes in phosphorus use and losses in the food chain of China during 1950–2010 and forecasts for 2030. Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst 104, 361–372 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-015-9737-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-015-9737-y

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