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Emerging Risks of Wildfires at the Wildland-Urban Interface in Mexico

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Abstract

As more intense and more frequent natural hazards result in human and economic losses, fires, and more specifically wildfires in wildland-urban interface/intermix (WUI) are among the natural hazards that present a substantial, albeit preventable risk of ecological and human disasters. Although wildfires are a largely researched area of study in forest ecology and natural sciences across the globe, with social science and interdisciplinary studies of risk catching up, WUI areas across North, Central and South America that show an increase in wildfire risk are currently under-researched, with the exception of Canada and the US. In this paper, we focus on wildfires in the Mexican WUI, which have historically been seen as a threat to forest ecosystems rather than as a threat to populations. This paper sets out to understand to what extent the under-researched WUI wildfires present risk to WUI populations in Mexico using a mixed methods approach. We perform a Mexico WUI fire diagnostics by drawing on the official datasets, documentation regarding preparedness, mitigation and response to wildfires affecting urban populations, and where information is lacking, we review media news sources regarding the outcomes for populations in the past WUI wildfires in Mexico. We conclude that a substantial proportion of WUI territory in Mexico is at risk from wildfires, potentially causing harm to populations in the future. Thus, more should be done to prepare these populations to respond, and mechanisms for fire risk mitigation, wildfire adaptation and recovery from fire effects should be developed.

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Data Availability

Available upon request.

Notes

  1. Built environment was identified using the “Built urban” land use reported by INEGI [40, 44, 45]. According to INEGI’s methodologies, “Built urban” land use refers to the demographic aggregates considering the natural and material works that encompasses them. Built areas that are small in area or density (smaller than 25 hectares) are not reported by INEGI.

  2. Urban polygons are the polygons that INEGI defines urban area for census purposes. This is not based on land use and we did not use this categorisation to identify built environment land uses.

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Acknowledgements

The corresponding author acknowledges the support from the “Coordinación de la Investigación Científica” from the “Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México” through a scholarship to pursue postdoctoral studies with a grant number: CJIC/CTIC/1098/2020, as well as the support of CONACYT Convocatoria 2022(1) Estancias Posdoctorales por México—Modalidad Académica, CVU 1109762. The authors would also like to acknowledge Dr Enrico Ronchi, Dr Erica Kuligowski, and Dr Steve Gwynne for their encouragement and providing feedback on the original idea. The authors are also grateful to the Reviewers whose feedback helped improve the original manuscript.

Funding

The funding for the corresponding author was provided by CONACYT, Mexico (Grant No. 1109762) and Coordinación de la Investigación Científica, UNAM (Grant No. CJIC/CTIC/1098/2020).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Sismología, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Col. Ciudad Universitaria, Alcaldía Coyoacán, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico

    Sandra Vaiciulyte

  2. Centro de Investigación y Posgrado en Humanidades, Ciencias e Ingeniería - Instituto de Estudios Superiores de la Ciudad de México “Rosario Castellanos”, Mexico City, Mexico

    Alejandro Rivero-Villar

  3. Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Col. Ciudad Universitaria, Alcaldía Coyoacán, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico

    Louise Guibrunet

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  1. Sandra Vaiciulyte
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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 3 and 4.

Table 3 Number of Fires Reported in the CONAFOR Database, by Year and State
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Table 4 WUI Fires per State per Year
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Vaiciulyte, S., Rivero-Villar, A. & Guibrunet, L. Emerging Risks of Wildfires at the Wildland-Urban Interface in Mexico. Fire Technol 59, 983–1006 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-023-01376-w

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