Skip to main content
Log in

Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data

  • Published:
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Using high-frequency data, this study investigates price discovery in the newly established stock index (CSI300) futures market in China. Our empirical results reveal new evidence that the CSI300 index futures market play a dominant role in the price discovery process about one year after its inception and new information is disseminated more rapidly in the stock index futures market than the stock market. This is different from findings in the previous literature. Our results also imply that the index futures market has evolved and can be used as a price discovery vehicle. Thus the CSI300 stock index futures market plays an important role in the capital markets in China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akaike, H. (1973). Information theory and the extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In B. N. Petrov, & F. Csaki (Eds.), Proceeding of the second international symposium on information theory (pp. 267–281). Budapest Akademiai Kiado.

  • Antoniou A., Ergul N. (1997) Market efficiency, thin trading and non-linear behaviour: Evidence from an emerging market. European Financial Management 3: 175–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bailey W. (1994) Risk and return on China’s new stock markets: Some preliminary evidence. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 2: 243–260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakaert G., Harvey C. R. (1997) Emerging equity market volatility. Journal of Financial Economics 43: 29–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bohl M. T., Salm C. A., Schuppli M. (2011) Price discovery and investor structure in stock index futures. Journal of Futures Markets 31(3): 282–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brenner R. J., Kroner K. F. (1995) Arbitrage, cointegration, and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30: 23–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan K. (1992) A further analysis of the lead–lag relationship between the cash market and stock index futures market. Review of Financial Studies 5: 123–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan K., Chan K. C., Karolyi G. A. (1991) Intraday volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets. Review of Financial Studies 4: 657–684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang R., Fong W.-M. (2001) Relative information efficiency of cash, futures, and options markets: The case of an emerging market. Journal of Banking and Finance 25: 355–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diamond, D. W., & Verrecchia, R. E. (1987). Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information. Journal of Financial Economics, 18, 277–231.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickey D., Fuller W. (1981) ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49: 1057–1072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engle R. F., Granger C. W. J. (1987) Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55: 251–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engle R. F., Ito T., Lin W. (1990) Meteor showers or heat waves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Econometrica 58: 525–542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eun C. S., Sabherwal S. (2003) Cross-border listings and price discovery: Evidence from US-listed Canadian stocks. Journal of Finance 58: 549–575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frazzini A. (2006) The disposition effect and underreaction to news. Journal of Finance 61: 2017–2046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh A. (1993) Cointegration and error correction models: Intertemporal causality between index and futures prices. The Journal of Futures Markets 13(2): 193–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gonzalo J., Granger C. (1995) Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 13: 27–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Granger C. W. J. (1986) Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 48: 213–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Granger C. W. J. (1988) Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics 39: 199–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasbrouck J. (1995) One security, many markets: Determining the contributions to price discovery. Journal of Finance 50: 1175–1199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen S. (1988) Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12: 231–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen S. (1991) Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica 59: 1511–1580

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen S. (1992) Determination of cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54: 383–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen S., Juselius K. (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52: 169–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kappi J. (1997) Pricing of futures contracts on coupon bonds: Empirical evidence from Finland. European Financial Management 3: 321–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kavussanos M. G., Visvikis I. D., Alexakis P. D. (2008) The lead-lag relationship between cash and stock index futures in a new market. European Financial Management 14(5): 1007–1025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ke B., Wang H. H. (2005) Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 49: 125–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim M., Szakmary A. C., Schwarz T. V. (1999) Trading costs and price discovery across stock index futures and cash markets. Journal of Futures Markets 19: 475–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutmos G., Tucker M. (1996) Temporal relationships and dynamic interactions between spot and futures stock markets. The Journal of Futures Markets 16: 55–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin C. C., Chen S. Y., Hwang D. Y., Lin C. F. (2002) Does index futures dominate index spot: Evidence from Taiwan market. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 5(2): 255–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ljung M., Box G. (1978) On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrica 65: 297–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller M. H., Muthuswamy J., Whaley R. E. (1994) Mean reversion of standard & poors 500 index basis changes: arbitrage-induced or statistical illusion?. Journal of Finance 49: 479–513

    Google Scholar 

  • Newey W. K., West K. D. (1987) A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55(3): 703–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ng L., Wu F. (2007) The trading behaviour of institutions and individuals in Chinese equity markets. Journal of Banking and Finance 31: 2695–2710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips P. C. B., Perron P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regressions. Biometrica 75: 335–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pizzi M. A., Economopoulos A. J., O’Neill H. (1998) An examination of the relationship between stock index cash and futures markets: a cointegration approach. Journal of Futures Markets 18: 297–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz G. (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 6: 461–464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwarz T. V., Szakmary A. C. (1994) Price discovery in petroleum markets: Arbitrage, cointegration, and the time interval of analysis. Journal of Futures Markets 14: 147–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stoll H. R., Whaley R. E. (1990) The dynamics of stock index and stock index futures returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 25: 441–468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theissen E. (2002) Price discovery in floor and screen trading systems. Journal of Empirical Finance 9: 455–474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsay R. S. (2010) Analysis of financial time series (3rd ed.). Wiley, Hoboken

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Tse Y. K. (1995) Lead-lag relationship between spot index and futures price of the nikkei stock average. Journal of Forecasting 14: 553–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tse Y. (1999) Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets. Journal of Futures Markets 19(8): 911–930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahab M., Lashgari M. (1993) Price dynamics and error correction in stock index and stock index futures markets: a cointegration approach. The Journal of Futures Markets 13(7): 711–742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang J., Bessler D. A., Leatham D. J. (2001) Asset storability and price discovery of commodity futures markets: A new look. Journal of Futures Markets 21: 279–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang J., Yang Z., Zhou Y.G. (2011) Intraday price discovery and volatility transmission in stock index and stock index futures markets: Evidence from China. Journal of Futures Markets 00(00): 1–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhong M., Darrat A. F., Otero R. (2004) Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico. Journal of Banking and Finance 28: 3037–3054

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Steven Li.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hou, Y., Li, S. Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data. Asia-Pac Financ Markets 20, 49–70 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-012-9158-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-012-9158-8

Keywords

Navigation